Russia - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Harvard ...

I. Introduction
The likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack against Russia is growing, as radical
separatists in troubled Chechnya increasingly become more desperate, and security at many of
Russia’s civil nuclear facilities remains insufficient. 1 They have already demonstrated their capability
and willingness to inflict massive indiscriminate casualties by organizing an apartment bombing in
the southern Russian city of Buinaksk. They have acquired radioactive materials, 2 threatened to
attack Russia’s nuclear facilities, 3 plotted to hijack a nuclear submarine, 4 and have attempted to put
pressure on the Russian leadership by planting a container with radioactive materials in Moscow and
threatening to detonate it. 5 These incidents occurred between 1994 and 1996, during Russia’s first
1 This report will refer to those who believe that acts of catastrophic nuclear terrorism will serve their aims best as
“radical separatists,” distinct from “conventional separatists,” who would limit themselves to guerilla war methods only.
I will define “nuclear terrorism” as any of the three following acts: detonation of a nuclear bomb; sabotage of a nuclear
facility with the intention of dispersing large quantities of radioactive material; or the dispersal of radiological material by
several powerful dirty bombs. I will define “catastrophic nuclear terrorism” as a terrorist attack that would lead to
massive casualties, if not wide-scale destruction, such as the explosion of a nuclear bomb.
2 Chechen fighters removed several containers of radioactive materials from the Grozny branch of Russia’s Radon
nuclear waste collection enterprise prior to the seizure of the facility by federal troops in January 2000, according to a
Russian magazine’s sources in the Russian Ministry of Defense. Yury Gladkevich, “Poshel v Gory” [Into the
mountains], Profil Magazine, March 20, 2000, quoted in “Radwaste Reported Removed from Radon Facility in Grozny,”
by NIS Nuclear Trafficking Database, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies
Nuclear Threat Initiative, available at http://www.nti.org/db/nistraff/2000/20000230.htm as of June 19, 2002.
3 Then-Chechen president Dzhokhar Dudayev warned that his fighters might attack nuclear plants in Russia in 1992 to
discourage Moscow from trying to counter his republic’s independence bid. He issued a similar threat again in 1995
when the military campaign was already underway in the republic. “Dudayev Grozit Perenesti Voinu v Glub’ Rossii,”
[Dudayev threatens to transfer war into the depths of Russia], Vecherny Chelyabinsk, February 1, 1995.
4 “V Chechne Nashli Plan Zakhvata Rossiiskoi Lodki” [Plan to hijack a Russian submarine found in Chechnya],
Lenta.ru, February 4, 2002, available at www.lenta.ru/vojna as of July 4, 2002. Also reported in “Nachalnik
Operativnogo Shtaba Maskhadova Gotovil Plan Zakhvata Rossiiskoi Atomnoi Podlodki” [Chief of Maskhadov’s
operational staff was preparing a plan to hijack Russian atomic submarine], RIA-Novosti, April 25, 2002.
5 Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev tried to blackmail Russian leadership with a crude radiological device. Basayev
threatened to organize undercover attacks with radioactive, chemical, and biological substances against Moscow. See
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