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Kuznetsov. 83 This type of explosion would have a psychological impact similar to that caused by a
dirty bomb attack. 84
It is important to bear in mind that sabotaging modern nuclear reactors, which have a
redundancy of vital safety functions, would require profound knowledge of their design, including
awareness of which NPP-specific equipment would need to be destroyed to cause a reactor melt-
down and where the equipment is located. 85 There is no firm evidence that Chechnya-based radical
separatists have this knowledge, although the October 2002 arrest of one of the Kalininskaya NPPs
suggests they are trying to obtain it.
In a worst-case scenario, Chechnya-based radical separatists can use the same technique to
attempt a hijacking of a submarine equipped with nuclear warheads or seize atomic demolition
munitions en route to a facility, attempting to compel the Kremlin to pull troops out of Chechnya or
recognize the republic’s independence. An explosion of a nuclear warhead in a city would
immediately kill hundreds of thousands and would send panic waves across the entire continent. 86
This variant is least probable, however, as nuclear weapons are accorded the highest security.
Additionally, defense, security, and law-enforcement agencies usually screen candidates and check
their background before clearing them to guard such facilities as NPPs, research reactors, and
nuclear arsenals.
IV. The Challenge of Discerning Messianic Terrorist Threats
83 Kuznetsov.
84 Pikayev Interview.
85 Oleg Bukharin, “Upgrading Security At Nuclear Power Plants In The Newly Independent States,”
The Nonproliferation Review, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University, United States, 1997.
86 An explosion of a 25-megaton nuclear warhead over the heart of Detroit or St. Petersburg, for instance, would kill
immediately anywhere between 200,000 and 2,000,000, according to “The Effects of Nuclear War,” Office of
Technology Assessment, Congress of the United States, May 1979.
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