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Tab. 7: N surplus (Field balance = Soil surface balance) in agriculture of the individual 13 Danube countries<br />
(DC-13) according to the scenarios 1- 5 of daNUbs<br />
Scenarios daNUbs (D 3.1/ 3.2 and D 3.3)<br />
Danube<br />
Countries<br />
(DC)<br />
1.Reference 1999<br />
= Business as<br />
usual<br />
2. Worst case:<br />
Global Markets<br />
3. Best<br />
available<br />
Technique<br />
4. Sustainable<br />
(Green):<br />
Regional Markets<br />
N – Surplus in Agriculture (Soil surface = Field balance) [Behrendt 2004]<br />
5. Prognosis:<br />
Policy<br />
1. DE:<br />
BW+ BY<br />
2. SI<br />
3. CZ<br />
4. AT<br />
5. HR<br />
6. SK<br />
7. RO<br />
8. HU<br />
9. MD<br />
10. BH<br />
11. BG<br />
12. UA<br />
kg . ha -1. yr -1 % kg . ha -1. yr -1 % kg . ha -1. yr -1 % kg . ha -1. yr -1 % kg . ha -1. yr -1 %<br />
81.6<br />
73.9<br />
47.4<br />
43.6<br />
34.1<br />
26.5<br />
22.8<br />
22.5<br />
20.0<br />
17.5<br />
15.5<br />
13.4<br />
13.3<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
100<br />
80.9<br />
75.7<br />
97.3<br />
43.4<br />
46.2<br />
75.0<br />
52.1<br />
61.7<br />
47.6<br />
38.9<br />
54.4<br />
39.6<br />
69.9<br />
99<br />
102<br />
205<br />
100<br />
135<br />
283<br />
229<br />
274<br />
238<br />
222<br />
351<br />
296<br />
526<br />
74.4<br />
60.0<br />
79.9<br />
33.6<br />
36.6<br />
61.7<br />
41.1<br />
48.7<br />
37.7<br />
30.9<br />
42.4<br />
31.3<br />
55.4<br />
91<br />
81<br />
169<br />
77<br />
107<br />
233<br />
180<br />
216<br />
189<br />
177<br />
274<br />
234<br />
417<br />
43.4<br />
48.1<br />
30.1<br />
23.4<br />
18.8<br />
31.3<br />
19.3<br />
18.8<br />
19.1<br />
22.2<br />
11.9<br />
13.6<br />
16.7<br />
53<br />
65<br />
64<br />
54<br />
55<br />
118<br />
85<br />
84<br />
96<br />
127<br />
77<br />
101<br />
126<br />
87.4<br />
60.2<br />
44.9<br />
52.1<br />
27.7<br />
13. CS<br />
Average:<br />
DC -13 27.1 100 58.1 214 46.7 172 21.0 77 38.9 144<br />
39.8<br />
31.5<br />
43.6<br />
33.4<br />
31.6<br />
21.2<br />
22.0<br />
41.1<br />
107<br />
81<br />
95<br />
119<br />
81<br />
150<br />
138<br />
193<br />
167<br />
181<br />
137<br />
164<br />
309<br />
Re0635<br />
Tab. 8:<br />
1. Average N-surplus of agriculture within the Danube Basin (kg . ha -1 . yr -1 )<br />
[Soil Surface Balance = Field balance] and<br />
2. Total Input of N and P (kt . yr -1 ) of point and diffuse sources to the Delta of the river Danube<br />
( Black Sea)<br />
A) Reference situations: at present (2000) [100]<br />
B) with different Scenarios 1- 5<br />
Situations<br />
[Isermann, K. , Isermann., R.,<br />
Zessner, M.: D3.1/3.2, D3.3<br />
2004]<br />
A) Reference situations:<br />
at present (1999/2000)<br />
B) Scenarios:<br />
1. Business as usual<br />
(BAU)<br />
2. Worst case: Global<br />
Markets (WC 1989)<br />
3. Best available technique<br />
(BAT)<br />
4. Sustainability: Regional<br />
Markets<br />
(Green Scenario)<br />
5. Prognosis: Policy<br />
1. N-surplus agriculture<br />
(kg . ha -1 . yr -1 )<br />
[Behrendt 2004]<br />
2. Input to the Delta (diffuse + point sources)<br />
(kt . ha -1 . yr -1 )<br />
[van Gils 2004]<br />
N<br />
P<br />
27.1 (100) 1) 451 (100) 20.2 (100)<br />
27.1 (100) 1)<br />
58.1 (214) (100)<br />
46.7 (172) (80)<br />
21.0 (77) (36)<br />
38.9 (143) (67)<br />
406 (90)<br />
493 (109) (100)<br />
410 (91) (83)<br />
310 (69) (63)<br />
424 (94) (86)<br />
18.6 (92)<br />
26.3 (130) (100)<br />
12.0 (59) (46)<br />
8.8 (44) (33)<br />
19.7 (98) (75)<br />
1) Compare: Bavaria + Baden-Württemberg: 81.6 re0628<br />
Ukraine: 13.4
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