c - usaid

16
years. Obviously, pooling introduces a certain degree o error,
but
it heLps in making a graphical presentation of what had to be
visualisod in a seven-dimensional space.
Equations (3.1)
and [3.2) can now be re-written as
F3
B
TFR 15 + 20 --- ..... (3.3)
W I
W2
1000
CBR =- - - B I +3B4 + 2 )- ...
P
By showing B along the x-axis
1 and B along the Y-axis,
equations (3.3] and (3.4) represent two straight Lines,
for given
values of TFR and COR. (see I igure 3.1]. For the purpose of this
graph, we a ssume a TFR target of 4.8 and a CBR target of 31 for
1991. Values of W , W 2 and P for 1991 are taken from available
projections.
Small errors in these as well as those arising from
the
pooling of a ga- Uroups do not invalidate the main point of our
argument in the present i Lluatration.
Figure 3.1 shows that a CBR-tnrget of 31 can be satisfied
only if the totaL number of live births in 1991 does not exceed
.3514. On the other hand, a TFR-target of 4.8 is not so
restrictive and it can be satisfied, for example, even if-totelbirths
in 1991 are aa many as 4150, provided only that 2,90 0 of
these bi rthE wilL be to women below 30 years of age. A
simultaneous satisfaction
of both the CBR and TFR targats wi LL be
possible
only if total births are 3514 of whom a majority will be
to women over 30 years of ag. It will be shown in section 5 that
the chances of this happening in 1
a91 are
very slim.