c - usaid

65
The main conclusions that we can draw from the abovementinonad
sets of estimates are tho following:­
(a) TFR estimates for tha years 1986 to 2001, which are
currantly used, appear to bo reaonab oL;
(b) CBR estimatas for 1286 and 1991, whIch are currently used,
saum to be under-estimtes, particularly for 1991 '
(c] CBR estimates for 1996 and 2001, which era currently used,
appear to ba reasonable.
The conclusion (b) cells for further comment. If C$R
estimate for 1986 is revised and put in the range "39.2 to 40.0",
and the corresponding estimate for 1991 is also revised and put in
the range "36. 2 to 36.9", than the population projections
themselves may need to be re-examined.
From the methodological point of view, our model opena up new
poasvbi Li ties for research, for example,
(i) The enti re exercisu can be repeated by taking 1985 or 1986
as the base year if the CPS-1985/86 provides detailed data
significantly different from the trend revealed by CPS-1981
and CPS-1903.
(i i Additional patterns of natural ferti Li ty can alse be tested
for validity in relation to Bang ladesh data;
[ i-Ai I Greater attention can be devoted to test the validity of
commonly accepted values of use-effectiveness of different
methods of cant racepti on, and of the sterility correction
factors, ago-specific as wel l as overall.
[fiv)]-We could examine in greeter detail as to how the results