c - usaid

I Relative value for ago-group
AWRA
ASNFR = -x - x TFR. - . . (4.11]
5 Sum of reLative va lueos
where is al ready u stimated in block 2, step 3.
Obviouvsly, each s t of re la tive values will yield ono sot of ASNFR
for each target y P ar, but thei r sum (multipJ lied by 5] wi)l l be the
same f ur each year, namely the total natu ra l ferti li ty rate
( T N F R I .
Check that 5 _ ASNFR = TNFR i n each cave.
Stop 3
This
stop relates to ostimating ago-specific CPn's for each
target year. However, a scienti fic way of deriving a suitable
formula for this pu rpoae needs to be explored and idonti fied.
Thi s
can be done in the following manner.
The most important part of the modal is a formula which
expresses ago-specific CPR's, i.e., u. (t] for each target year
as a function of the following:­
(a]
the corresponding age-spoci fic CPR's in the base year, i.e.,
u[I;
u 1
(b] the overall CPR in the target year, i.e. u t] already
estimated to be necessary for a chieving a TFR target. The
functional relationship between u (t) and u(t] should be
such that the a verage of the seven u (t) values yields u t].
Thir, is
an important consictency condition;
[c: the overall CPR in the hose year, i.e., u(O). Again, it is
necessary that the u ( )] and u(O) appear in the formula for
u . I t) in vuch a way that they cancel each other when the
seven u (t. va lues are averaged to obtain u(t beceuse
1s
othertrise the consistency condition stated in [b] above