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6. CONiCLUSION
This monograph takes the view
that, although the Population
Counci l '
fertility model has many commendable features, it does
not, in its present form, adequately moot tho needs of
demographers and population planners in Bangladesh. It is now
commonly agreed that rising rates of contraceptive prevalence have
an important role in bringing about a rapid decline in fertility
in this country. Tho Population Council's model helps in
estimating to what level contraceptive prevalence ncadz to be
raised in order to achieve a ta rgotted decline in total ferti Lity
rate (TFR] . However, the model does not provide a direct answer
to on
important, related question, namely "haw much dacline in the
crude birth rate (CBRI can be achieved at the same time ?"
A step-motherly treatment given to CBR is,
in our opinion an
unsatisfactory element in the Population Counci l's fertility
model. This can be considerad as a shortcoming from the viewpoint
of the scope and coverage of the :odel.
-. Another shortcoming in methodological in nature. This
relates to the age-specific version in which the age-specific ­
ferti lity rates in the target year ASFR(t) are considered as an
input (along with other inputs], the output being the age-specific
CPR's or ui ( t . Such an approach lessens the usefulness of the
model for population planners, particularLy in Bang ladesh.
Having
estimated, from the aggregate model, the overall CPR needed to
achieve a TFR target, the planners would like to ask, fi rBtly,
whether there is a unique dist ribution of the Ui (t) failing vhich
the TFR target cannot be achieved.
We have shown in the monograph