Gonzalo C. Caprirolo and Marko Glažar Fiscal multipliers ... - UMAR

Working Paper 2/2013
Fiscal multipliers and policy mix during fiscal consolidation process: minimizing the impact of fiscal
adjustment on economic activity (GDP)
ii
List of figures and tables
Figure 1: Impact of 1 p.p. increase in cost of capital on level of GDP, temporary (IK) and permanent increase (IK-p) ..................................... 3
Figure 2: Impact of 1 p.p. increase in cost of capital on GDP growth %, temporary (IK) and permanent increase (IK-p) ................................ 3
Figure 3: Temporary shock (level effect) ..................................................................................................................................................... 4
Figure 4: Permanent shock (GDP level effect) ...................................................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 5: Permanent shock (GDP growth rate) .................................................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 6: Permanent shock (GDP level effect) ...................................................................................................................................................... 8
Figure 7: Permanent shock (GDP growth rate) .................................................................................................................................................... 8
Figure 8: Permanent shock (GDP level effect) .................................................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 9: Permanent shocks (GDP growth rate) ................................................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 10: Accumulated loss in level of GDP, p.p. ...................................................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 11: Consolidation policy (GDP growth rate) .............................................................................................................................................. 12
Figure 12: Consolidation policy (GDP level effect) ............................................................................................................................................. 12
Table 1: First-year multipliers from 1 % of GDP temporary measure ................................................................................................. 3
Table 2: First-year multipliers from 1 % of GDP temporary measure ................................................................................................. 5
Table 3: First-year multipliers from 1 % of GDP permanent consolidation ...................................................................................... 5
Table 4: Sensitivity analysis of multipliers .................................................................................................................................................. 7
Table 5: Fiscal consolidation policy mix envisaged in the Stability Program 2012 ..................................................................... 12