Gonzalo C. Caprirolo and Marko Glažar Fiscal multipliers ... - UMAR

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Working Paper 2/2013 Fiscal multipliers and policy mix during fiscal consolidation process: minimizing the impact of fiscal adjustment on economic activity (GDP) ii List of figures and tables Figure 1: Impact of 1 p.p. increase in cost of capital on level of GDP, temporary (IK) and permanent increase (IK-p) ..................................... 3 Figure 2: Impact of 1 p.p. increase in cost of capital on GDP growth %, temporary (IK) and permanent increase (IK-p) ................................ 3 Figure 3: Temporary shock (level effect) ..................................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 4: Permanent shock (GDP level effect) ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 5: Permanent shock (GDP growth rate) .................................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 6: Permanent shock (GDP level effect) ...................................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 7: Permanent shock (GDP growth rate) .................................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 8: Permanent shock (GDP level effect) .................................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 9: Permanent shocks (GDP growth rate) ................................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 10: Accumulated loss in level of GDP, p.p. ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 11: Consolidation policy (GDP growth rate) .............................................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 12: Consolidation policy (GDP level effect) ............................................................................................................................................. 12 Table 1: First-year multipliers from 1 % of GDP temporary measure ................................................................................................. 3 Table 2: First-year multipliers from 1 % of GDP temporary measure ................................................................................................. 5 Table 3: First-year multipliers from 1 % of GDP permanent consolidation ...................................................................................... 5 Table 4: Sensitivity analysis of multipliers .................................................................................................................................................. 7 Table 5: Fiscal consolidation policy mix envisaged in the Stability Program 2012 ..................................................................... 12
Working Paper 2/2013 Fiscal multipliers and policy mix during fiscal consolidation process: minimizing the impact of fiscal adjustment on economic activity (GDP) iii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS EU DSGEM GDP LCH OECD VAT SLC SP SFW European Union Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model Gross domestic product Liquidity constrained households The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Value added tax Liquidity constrained factor Stability Program Forward looking factor
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Gonzalo C. Caprirolo and Marko Glažar Fiscal multipliers ... - UMAR

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