Carbon 2009 Emission trading coming home - UNEP Finance Initiative

17 March 2009
Figure 3.5: Should I buy, sell, bank or reduce emissions?
Companies with emissions covered by the EU ETS. N=285 (2009).
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
I/we would buy EUAs today at a minimum price of
2008
2009
Average 2008: €18
Average 2009: €11
35%
30%
25%
20%
I/we would sell EUAs today at a minimum price of €
2008
2009
Average 2008: €28
Average 2009: €17
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
0-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-50
50-
100
>100
0-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-50
50-100
>100
25%
20%
15%
I/we would bank any surplus EUAs at prices below €
2008
2009
Average 2008: €22
Average 2009: €15
25%
20%
15%
We would seek to reduce our own emissions and start to
sell EUAs if the EUA price were to stay above €
2008
2009
Average 2008: €44
10%
10%
Average 2009: €33
5%
5%
0%
0%
0-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-50
50-100
>100
0-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-50
50-100
>100
Source: Point Carbon
the EU ETS in phase 2 significantly
down. Some analysts, such
as Deutsche Bank and Daiwa
Securities, have even forecast a
surplus of EUAs over the 2008-
12 period. Point Carbon and most
other analysts, however, still
expect the phase as a whole to
be short EUAs, and thus to need
a certain volume of CER/ERU
imports to be in compliance.
The reduction in expected
emissions at the company level
can be seen in Figure 3.3. This
figure shows the distribution of
reported short and long positions
in the ETS. Most notably, the
share of companies reporting that
they need to buy EUAs in addition
to their full credit limit has fallen
from 37 percent last year to 31
percent this year. In the same
manner, the share of companies
with surplus EUAs to sell has
gone up from 15 percent to 24
percent. This situation agrees
with the brisk selling of EUAs
that we have seen in recent
months.
Increased share
of companies with
surplus allowances
How are these “shorts” and
“longs” distributed by sector?
Figure 3.4 gives some answers.
The companies that have surplus
EUAs to sell are concentrated
in the industry sectors other
than oil and gas. Companies
in the sectors pulp and paper
(67 percent), cement, lime and
glass (36 percent) and others (38
percent) will likely have surplus
EUAs to sell. Some of this surplus
likely derives from a contraction
in production output in these
sectors.
Also as expected, the power
sector has the greatest number of
short companies, with 53 percent
needing to buy extra EUAs
(whether or not they have surplus
CERs). This is also the sector that
has the brunt of CERs available
for swapping, presumably in large
21
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