Carbon 2009 Emission trading coming home - UNEP Finance Initiative

17 March 2009
in China, this share was 57
percent.
The next set of questions -
on the countries to take on
quantified emission reduction
commitments, the new shape of
CDM, deforestation/REDD - were
asked only to the respondents
who believe the negotiators
will reach an agreement in
Copenhagen that commits
countries to continued GHG
emissions reductions.
First, looking at the countries
that could take on commitments
in the post-2012 framework,
starting from 2012, there are no
surprises. Key Annex I countries
have the highest scores. The
results are given in Figure 4.2.
77 percent of US
respondents expect
US participation
in post-2012 deal
The share of respondents
believing the US will participate in
a post-2012 deal with quantified
commitments is up from 53
percent in 2008 to 77 percent
this year, which is the largest
percentage point increase among
the countries in our survey.
There is no doubt that Obama’s
election, and his commitment
to engage in the international
negotiations, is the main reason
for this change. A similar jump
was seen for Australia from 2007
to 2008, following the election
of the Rudd government and the
subsequent ratification of the
Kyoto protocol.
The second biggest increase
from 2008 to 2009 can be seen
in South Korea, which jumps
from 45 percent last year to 63
percent this year. Economically
developed, member of the
OECD, one of the world’s major
GHG emitters, there are obvious
reasons why South Korea should
be part of the group of countries
that commit to reduce emissions
in the post-2012 framework.
We also asked respondents the
same question for 2020. For
the main developing countries
(China, India, Brazil), the share
of respondents thinking they
will take on commitments in the
long term increases significantly.
For example the share of
respondents believing China and
India will take on commitments in
an international agreement jumps
from around 30 in 2013 to around
80 percent in 2020.
There are also some interesting
geographical differences.
Compared to 31 percent among
all respondents, 42 percent of
respondents in China believe the
country will have commitments
from 2013, a share that increases
to 64 percent for 2020. For Brazil,
the share of respondents in the
country that believe it will have
commitments from 2013 (37
percent) is lower than the average
from all respondents (43 percent),
while it increases to 76 percent in
2020 for respondents in Brazil.
On the other hand, 56 percent of
US respondents believe Mexico
and Brazil will have commitments
from 2013, while the share of US
respondents who believe India
and China will have commitments
from 2013 is only 32 percent.
4.2.1 REDD
Beyond the question of who will
take on commitments, the issue of
deforestation has received a good
deal of attention in 2008. In Poznan
in December, parties agreed on a
broad approach to this source of
emission reduction, including in
their consideration, in addition to
deforestation and degradation, the
role of conservation, sustainable
management of forests and
Figure 4.3: REDD and post-2012
“Do you think deforestation/REDD will be a key element in the climate framework
to be finalised in Copenhagen in December 2009?” Respondents who expect
global agreement in 2009. N=1,714.
Don't know/no
opinion
Share of respondents
Source: Point Carbon
Yes
No
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
33
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