Carbon 2009 Emission trading coming home - UNEP Finance Initiative

Carbon 2009
Delivery risk also appears higher
due to the number of delays
most JI projects are currently
facing. Finally, Poznan did not
reduce uncertainty over the role
of JI after 2012.
Russia is still by far the largest
potential source of ERUs, and
the Russian JI framework is the
most critical of the factors above.
The country has a highly complex
system for domestic approval of
JI projects, and Moscow appears
reluctant to approve some project
types, such as those abating
methane leakages. Hence, as
mentioned in our CMA, “Outlook
for 2009,” Point Carbon expects
few if any ERUs to be delivered
from Russian projects in 2009.
Ukraine more likely
to sell AAUs than
Russia
Survey respondents appear to
share this view (Figure 3.12).
Only five percent of the persons
asked expect delivery of Russian
ERUs this year. Interestingly,
this is very similar to last year’s
response in the sense that just
over one in five expects ERUs
from Russia in the current year
or the year thereafter. The major
difference, of course, is that this
year we are one year closer to
the end of 2012.
How do our respondents see AAU
trading in 2009? The big question
is how much will come to market
from the two countries with the
largest surpluses, Ukraine and
Russia. Figure 3.13 shows that
for Russia, just over half of the
substantive responses expect a
sold AAU volume of more than
zero but no greater than 1 Gt.
One-third of respondents expect
Russia to sell more than 1 Gt in
the 2008-12 period.
In the case of Ukraine, 72 percent
of the substantive responses
are found in the range 0 – 1 Gt,
excluding the zero volume option.
When looking at respondents
in these two countries only, it is
also interesting to note that 12
percent of respondents expect
zero AAU volume from Russia
in the first Kyoto period, while
no respondents in Russia and
Ukraine state that they expect
zero AAU volume from Ukraine.
Consequently, while Russia has
the largest potential volume to
sell, Ukraine appears as the more
reliable country when it comes to
bringing its AAUs to market.
3.6 United States
Carbon markets towards 2012
may include a large new player:
the United States. We gauged
respondents’ feelings as to when
the US might establish its own
cap-and-trade program, and what
it might look like.
A compliance market in the US
would not go unnoticed for the
voluntary market. Quite the
opposite, as the prospect of a
future mandatory market already
influences buyers and sellers
strategy on the voluntary market
today.
3.6.1 A US ETS in the offing?
The signals coming from the
Obama administration in the first
weeks of his administration are
unequivocal: energy and climate
change are high on the agenda,
and a carbon cap-and-trade
programme is likely to be in place
in 2012.
On February 24, 2009, President
Obama asked Congress to “send
[him] legislation that places a
market-based cap on carbon
pollution and drives the production
of more renewable energy in
America.” The federal budget for
the year 2010 was released a
couple of days later, and included
revenues from carbon starting in
2012.
Figure 3.12: From Russia with ERUs?
“When will the first emission reduction unit (ERU) be delivered from Russia?”
Note: “Don’t know” excluded from chart. N=2,223 (2009); 1,560 substantive
replies.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Not in the 2008-12
period
Source: Point Carbon
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Share of respondents
2009
2008
26
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