the November 2009 Issue in PDF Format - Trade Show Executive

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Sponsored by trending & spending PrivilegedAccess.tv Continued from page 13 16.8% of the workforce is unemployed or underemployed, any gain in GDP is likely to be severely constrained and put a damper on wages and consumption,” he pointed out. The total number of jobs lost since the recession (which officially began in December 2007) now stands at more than 7.6 million, said Chow. The total number of unemployed workers exceeds 15.1 million. NABE economists expect that number to climb substantially throughout the remainder of the year and well into 2010. Using Labor Department data, the New York Times found that the ratio of job seekers outnumber job openings by six to one. “This is the worst ratio since the government began tracking job openings in 2000,” said Chow. “Traditionally, this ratio is two to one.” Already, evidence is mounting that U.S. consumers – the lifeblood of any recovery – are reacting to the surge in unemployment by pulling back on spending. Household purchases will increase at a 1% annual rate for the Fourth Quarter after rising 2.4% in the previous quarter, according to the median forecast of 57 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Looking ahead Brian Bethune, the chief U.S. financial economist for IHS Global Insight Inc., says businesses are extremely cautious about managing the bottom line and do not have enough confidence to even think about raising employment levels. Meanwhile, worker productivity has continued to rise. “That means companies won’t feel compelled to hire new workers any time soon, despite the improved economic conditions,” said Chow. Still, there is much to be thankful for: the financial bleeding has almost stopped, a recovery is underway, lessons are being learned to prevent a reoccurrence of the global meltdown, and most of us can celebrate in peace. TSE An Insider’s Perspective How is the economy impacting the exposition industry? This month, four industry experts give you projections and early warning signs based on registration patterns, exhibit space commitments, long and short-term bookings, and discussions with peers and customers. Together with the rest of Trade Show Executive’s Exposition Forecasting Board, they have insider knowledge about the true performance of the majority of U.S. trade shows. Darlene Gudea, President, Trade Show Executive Colette O’Donnell, Group Controller, Advanstar Communications, Inc. Doug Ducate, President & CEO, Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) Frank Chow, Chief Economist, Trade Show Executive Margaret Pederson, President, Amirexx & 2009 IAEE Chair Nancy Walsh, Executive Vice President, Reed Exhibitions Skip Cox, President & CEO, Exhibit Surveys Tom Caridi, CFO, Questex Media Group Aaron Bludworth, Chief Operating Officer, George Fern Company Will Perception Become Reality? “Exhibitions mirror the industries they serve…always have and always will. Until industries begin to recover, the events that serve them cannot. “As for keys to watch for the exhibition business, look for the return of real company earnings, not just ‘smaller losses’ due mostly to cost reductions. As for industries to watch, monitor the building and construction shows. Most are held in the First Quarter. They are predictive because they are the beginning of a food chain that leads to selling floor coverings, bathroom and kitchen fixtures, appliances, furniture and accessories and even landscaping. As far as 2010 is concerned, these shows are basically sold and the early reports are not encouraging. There could be some improvement in 2011, but probably not much. I just hope that nothing comes along to disturb a recovery in 2012. “In 1936, renowned British economist John Maynard Keynes said, ‘We devote our intelligences to anticipating what the average opinion expects the average opinion to be.’ In the absence of reliable models and indicators, we turn to opinion and guesswork and we tend to believe the crowd. The crowd thinks the recovery is real. Let’s hope this time the crowd is right.” 14 November 2009 Trade Show Executive www.TradeShowExecutive.com
Sponsored by PrivilegedAccess.tv Tim McGill, CEO, Hargrove Inc. Old Methodology No Longer Applies “Exhibitors and show managers report that while attendance is obviously down, the quality of the attendee is good, as the serious buyers are still engaged. The 2008 and 2009 economic crisis has resulted in constricted 2010 marketing spend as companies go on the offensive to stabilize. Forecasts were a predictable process in the past as we anticipated year-over-year growth of current business in addition to new clients. We can now only predict new business with any sense of accuracy. “It is our belief that the declines will be less in 2010 along with some signs of stability as the year progresses. The real lack of clarity is how this recession has affected and defined the ‘new normal.’ In the year ahead, we will witness not only continued economic challenges, but the challenges of a changing trade show industry. The key will be how to capitalize on these changes.” Steven Hacker, President & CEO, International Association of Exhibitions & Events (IAEE) Chris Meyer, VP, Convention Sales, Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority James Rooney, Executive Director, Massachusetts Convention Center Authority Gregg Caren, Senior Vice President of Strategic Business Development, SMG Steve Moore, President & CEO, Greater Phoenix Convention & Visitors Bureau Gary sain, President & CEO, Orlando/ Orange County Convention & Visitors Bureau, Inc. Signs of a Slight Upturn “I think there are some signs that 2010 may be looking up just a little compared to 2009. Here in Orlando, we have a stronger event calendar than we did for 2009. Nationally, Maritz Travel CEO Christine Duffy had some fairly upbeat comments at last week’s Marketing Outlook Forum. There isn’t much left to cut from travel budgets, and businesses seem to understand the value of travel both to their business as well as to their staff morale and retention. This article echoes many of the themes Christine put forth: http:// meetingsreview.com/news/view/28096 “According to a recent NBTA survey, 69% of travel managers surveyed expect business travel volume to grow in 2010, and 56% project their total travel spend to increase in 2010. Furthermore, a study by Harvard Business Review Analytic Services found that of over 2,300 readers polled, 95% said they believe that faceto-face meetings are the key to success in building long-term relationships, and 89% agreed face-to-face meetings are essential for sealing the deal. “Certainly no one expects robust growth in 2010, but hopefully the worst is behind us and 2010 will be the start of what is likely to be a slow recovery.” Turnaround is at Least Two Quarters Away “By reviewing the lists of exhibiting companies months prior to an event, we can easily compare projections to last year’s actuals. For 2010, we do not expect a true turnaround until the end of Q2 and beginning of Q3. Doug levinson, Medical shows continue to be the strongest President & CEO, sector. Convention Data Services (CDS) “Attendance trends are difficult to pin down since we can only deal with pre-reg numbers at this point. However, in speaking with all of our major clients, they are budgeting flat in this category regardless of whether they are associations or for-profits.” Jack Chalden, Associate, The Augusta Group & VP, Business Development, BDMetrics, Inc. Terence Donnelly, VP, Trade Show Markets, Experient www.TradeShowExecutive.com Trade Show Executive November 2009 15
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