A framework for joint management of regional water-energy ... - Orbit

The impact of climate change on the optimal reservoir management is reflected
on the WVTs: lower inflows and higher irrigation demand increased water
values (Figure 14b), which increased the price of hydropower and reduced
production. The dark-red area, which represents the volume that must be
stored to satisfy expected future irrigation demand, became larger and resulted
in a more conservative operation policy.
Under the climate change scenario, lower precipitations and higher temperature
reduced inflows and increased irrigation demand, causing a reduction in
hydropower production by 24% (from 11.5% to 8.7% of mean annual generation),
and an increase in thermal power generation by 6.7% (from 40.5% to
43.3%). These changes in the energy mix increased annual CO 2 emissions of
the Iberian power generation sector from 71.9 to 76.9 million tons. Higher
expected temperatures modified seasonal power demand, reducing winter
demand and increasing summer demand.
Observed and simulated weekly energy storages are compared in Figure 15.
The observed storage series (a) is smoother than simulated one (b), possibly
because the former results from the aggregation of 100+ observed manage-
100
80
60
40
a
Observed 1966−1990
Relative energy storage in the equivalent reservoir [%]
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
100
80
60
b
c
Simulated 1961−1990
Simulated 2036−2065
40
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure 15. Annual effective relative energy storage: observed, control and future scenarios.Thin,
color lines represent individual years; thick black lines represent the average year
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