BoxOffice® Pro - January 2014

BIG PICTURE
The orginal Paranormal Activity
grossed $107,918,810 domestically on a
production budget of just $15,000
as moviegoers are still catching up on holdovers
from the holidays. The recent exception to that
was 2012’s The Devil Inside (also from Paramount),
which rode a strong viral campaign to
an unexpected $33.7 million opening. Although
word of mouth via Twitter quickly killed its legs (it
earned $53.3 million stateside, nearly 32 percent
of which came from opening day), the film struck
financial gold in large part due to its appeal to
Latino audiences. The Marked Ones follows suit by
featuring an all-Latino cast.
Unfortunately, typical spin-off box office
behavior can probably be expected. The
sharply declining interest in 2012’s fourth film
occurred at a similar point in the franchise’s life
cycle as it did for Saw, whose final three movies
in the seven-film series dropped 36 percent or
more from the $87 million peak of Saw II.
Lacking any major connection to the first
four Paranormal Activity efforts (outside of a
supporting character from the second flick),
The Marked Ones is unlikely to win back
audiences. Online buzz metrics are at a series
low (as of November 30, 2013) and fans of
the franchise are more skeptical than ever—especially
with this being the first of two new
Paranormal movies to come in the new year. A
proper sequel, Paranormal Activity 5, is set to
debut on October 24, 2014.
Just over one month from release, we’re
forecasting a domestic opening under $20 million
and a final haul in the range of $30 million
for The Marked Ones. As release weekend
approaches, those numbers will continue to be
refined as necessary on BoxOffice.com.
Does Paramount have anything to worry
about? Financially, the answer is a resounding
no. The studio knows how to keep their cash
cow effectively priced, so another combined
cost of $30 million or less should mean the
spin-off proves to be worth their efforts in the
long run—especially if the movie can continue
retaining most of its international audience.
Still, that’s no solace for North American exhibitors
who are hoping for Hollywood to find
a new horror-based cash cow in the near future
before the Paranormal Activity franchise burns
off the rest of its hard-earned goodwill.
THE PARANORMAL ACTIVITY SCORECARD
DOMESTIC GROSS
PARANORMAL ACTIVITY $107,918,810
PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 2 $84,752,907
PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 $104,028,807
PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 4 $53,921,300
PARANORMAL ACTIVITY: THE MARKED ONES $31,000,000*
PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 5
RELEASE DATE: OCTOBER 24, 2014
SOURCE: BOXOFFICE.COM
*PROJECTED
30 BoxOffice ® Pro The Business of Movies JANUARY 2014