Conservation and Management Strategy for the Elephant in Kenya

CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGY FOR THE ELEPHANT IN KENYA 9
The small Meru population has been surveyed in aerial total counts from 1990 to 2006 and has shown an annual
increase rate of 4.3% (Figure 5) whist the Masai Mara population has on average grown by 2.4% (Figure 6) and
Samburu/Laikipia by an average of 6.25% (Figure 7).
These population trends should not be taken as an indication of the national elephant population; they are simply
the only ones with a reasonable time series of good quality data and this selection is likely to be biased towards
better protected populations.
A key factor affecting elephant population status is observed rates of elephant mortality. Therefore, a centralised
Elephant Mortality Database was established at KWS headquarters in 1990. The average PIKE value was 35.3% from
1990 to 2002 (Thouless et al., 2008) and has remained high at 35.9% over the period up-to 2009 (Figure 8, Figure 9),
with regions with complete dataset (excluding Eastern and Western regions) arranged in rank order of PIKE in Figure
10. The rank ordering of PIKE, is a convenient way of sorting areas with a high level of risk to elephants from illegal
killing from those with a low risk, depending on whether they fall above or below the average PIKE value. This
separates the populations of Coast (south of Tana river), Tsavo, and Southern, all of which are known to be relatively
well protected, from those of Mt. Elgon, Central Rift, Meru, Northern, Samburu-Laikipia and Mountain, all of which
were known in the period to be poorly protected or to have high levels of HEC. The major threat to the northern
elephant populations is likely to be the large numbers of firearms in the hands of local communities, largely since the
breakdown of law and order in Somalia in the early 1990s.
100%
90%
Percent of all carcasses
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
152
75
92
65
84
102
137
82
148
115
236
112
216
113
149
73
248
222
928
381
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
[ FIGURE 8 ]
The proportion of illegally killed elephants (PIKE; dark portion of columns) contrasted with other causes of
elephant mortality (white portion of columns)