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pdf: 600KB - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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2<br />

Contents<br />

Executive Summary...................................................................................................................................................4<br />

1. Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................................6<br />

2. The context: simulation models in environmental research and policy <strong>for</strong>mulation.......................................8<br />

3. The development of modelling frameworks ......................................................................................................10<br />

3.1 Modelling environments and tools ..................................................................................................................10<br />

3.2 Modular modelling, component-based approaches, and integrated modelling frameworks ..........................11<br />

3.3 Critique of component-based approaches.......................................................................................................12<br />

4. The vision: what modelling could be like...........................................................................................................16<br />

5. What does 'declarative' mean?...........................................................................................................................17<br />

5.1 The 'declarative versus procedural' distinction ..............................................................................................17<br />

5.2 Moving the declarative:procedural boundary ................................................................................................18<br />

5.3 Two examples of shifting the declarative:procedural boundary .....................................................................19<br />

5.4 More examples of shifting the declarative:procedural boundary ...................................................................21<br />

5.5 What are the benefits of greater declarativeness? ..........................................................................................23<br />

5.6 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................................23<br />

6. Declarative and procedural representations of a model...................................................................................24<br />

6.1 Verbal description...........................................................................................................................................24<br />

6.2 Mathematical description................................................................................................................................25<br />

6.3 Representation of the model as a computer program .....................................................................................26<br />

6.4 Representation of the model in a simulation language ...................................................................................27<br />

6.5 Visual modelling environments .......................................................................................................................28<br />

6.6 Representation of the model in a database .....................................................................................................29<br />

6.7 Representation of the model in XML...............................................................................................................30<br />

6.8 Representation of the model in Prolog............................................................................................................31<br />

6.9 Conclusions.....................................................................................................................................................32<br />

7. Architecture <strong>for</strong> a declarative modelling approach..........................................................................................33<br />

7.1 Requirements specification <strong>for</strong> a model-representation language..................................................................33<br />

7.2 Designing the model-representation language: choosing an appropriate level of abstraction .....................35<br />

7.3 Designing the model-representation language: ontology ..............................................................................36<br />

7.4 Designing the model-representation language: syntax...................................................................................37<br />

7.5 Software tools <strong>for</strong> processing models.............................................................................................................38<br />

7.6 Producing a runnable version of the model ...................................................................................................39<br />

7.7 Modelling environments.................................................................................................................................40<br />

7.8 Publishing the models ....................................................................................................................................41<br />

7.9 Conclusions....................................................................................................................................................41<br />

8. Proof-of-concept: the Simile visual modelling environment............................................................................42<br />

8.1 Simile features.................................................................................................................................................42<br />

8.2 Simile in action................................................................................................................................................43

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