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pdf: 600KB - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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45<br />

Desktop<br />

temperature = graph(time(1)) +<br />

time(1)/20<br />

total harvest = sum([patch_harvest])<br />

rain = rand_var(0,2500)<br />

Temperature follows an annual cycle, expressed in<br />

a sketched graph, plus a rise of 1 degree C every<br />

20 years. (Simile provides a tool to enable users to<br />

sketch the graph, and uses linear interpolation<br />

between the points to evaluate the sketched<br />

function.)<br />

We sum the harvests from all the patches to give<br />

the total <strong>for</strong> the whole system.<br />

Rainfall varies randomly on each time step, with an<br />

annual average of 1250.<br />

Submodel Patch<br />

land use = floor(rand_const(0,2))<br />

x = floor((index(1)-1)/40)+1<br />

y = fmod(index(1)-1,40)+1<br />

soil type = (if x+y>rand_const(45,55)<br />

then floor(rand_const(1,1.3)) else<br />

floor(rand_const(1.8,3)))<br />

patch harvest = sum({harvest})*dt(1)<br />

This determines randomly the land use (i.e.<br />

whether a crop is grown) <strong>for</strong> each patch.<br />

These two expressions give each patch unique x,y<br />

coordinates on 1 range of 1 to 40.<br />

As a demonstration, the soil type is determined<br />

partly randomly, partly in terms of the x and y<br />

coordinates of each patch.<br />

This works out the amount harvested at the start of<br />

each year <strong>for</strong> each patch.<br />

Submodel Patch/Crop<br />

cond1 = (land_use==1)<br />

biomass = 0<br />

growth = (if soil_type==1 and<br />

water>100 then 20*0.04*temperature<br />

elseif water>150 then<br />

18*0.04*temperature else 0)<br />

growth coef = 17.0<br />

harvest = (if fmod(time(1),1)==0 then<br />

biomass/dt(1)else 0)<br />

This condition determines which patch is grown,<br />

determined by the patch's land use.<br />

Initial crop biomass is set to zero.<br />

Crop growth is worked out from soil type, soil<br />

water content and temperature.<br />

The growth coefficient (the growth rate <strong>for</strong> optimal<br />

conditions of temperature and soil water) is<br />

different <strong>for</strong> each crop, being 17,20 and 24 tonnes<br />

per year <strong>for</strong> crop types 1, 2 and 3 respectively.<br />

Current crop biomass becomes the harvest flow at<br />

the start of each year.<br />

Submodel Patch/Soil water<br />

water = 200<br />

rain = rain<br />

transpiration = (if water>50 then<br />

20*sum({biomass})else 0)<br />

drainage = 7*water<br />

Initial soil water is set to 200 mm<br />

The rain flow <strong>for</strong> each patch is set equal to the<br />

overall rainfall.<br />

Transpiration depends on crop biomass, if there is<br />

sufficient water in the soil.<br />

Soil water drainage is proportional to current soil<br />

water content.<br />

Table 8.1 Equations <strong>for</strong> the spatial crop model.

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