2009 Report - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission

commercial at 2 percent and industrial at 0.6 percent. Average total sales growth
from 2003 to 2008 was 1.4 percent.
The current aggregate five-year projection of growth in energy demand is
1.2 percent. This includes a residential growth rate of 1.0 percent, a commercial
rate of 1.5 percent and an industrial rate of 1.0 percent. See Figure 2.1.
Gigawatthours
55,000
52,500
50,000
47,500
45,000
42,500
40,000
37,500
35,000
32,500
30,000
Figure 2.1 Historic & Forecast Aggregate Energy Demand
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Residential Commercial Industrial
Over the past 15 years, the average aggregate non-coincident peak load for
the major EDCs increased 1.4 percent per year. From 2003-08, the peak load
increased by an average of 2.2 percent per year. From 2007-08, the aggregate
peak load increased from 29,001 MW to 29,970 MW, or 3.3 percent. The 2008
peak occurred on June 9 and June 10. See Figure 2.2.
The combined forecast of the EDCs’ peak load shows the load increasing
from 29,970 MW in 2008 to 31,038 MW in 2013 at an average annual growth rate
of 0.7 percent. Actual peak loads are weather-adjusted to reflect normal weather
conditions prior to using forecasting methodologies. Thus, the projected growth
rates reflect the year-to-year fluctuations in energy sales and peak load.
Electric Power Outlook for Pennsylvania 2008-2013 19