Final SACOG Phase 1 Goods Movement Report

half the decline was due to reductions in imports of electronic components and accessories from
Japan through California. At the same time, Savannah and New York experienced significant increases
in imports of these same products. Similarly, a decline in imports of integrated circuits
through California’s airports occured during this time. This was coincident with a dramatic increase,
equal to about half of the California decline, in their flow into the Savannah airport. Similar
changes occurred in computer and office equipment trade with Japan. In particular, imports of
hard drives and laptops have shifted dramaticaly from California’s airports to those in Chicago
and New York.
On the export side, the reduction in demand shares for California airport services largely reflects
a change in the export origin point for integrated circuits bound for the Philippines, Malaysia,
Singapore, and Japan. Many high-tech exports now originate in Dallas, Boston, and New York
rather than California.
The future of California’s airports in international trade wil be increasingly a mater of serving
markets in the geographic area immediately surrounding the airports. Forecasts that the volume
of international cargo passing through SFO would increase by 400 percent between 2000 and
2020 were largely predicated on the assumption that SFO would be a transshipment point for a
substantial amount of cargo moving between the Far East and other regions of the United States.
That expectation, as we have seen, looks to be waning. Far from continuing to expand at impressive
rates, the volume of international air cargo moving through SFO has actually fallen off.
(Exhibit 106 and Exhibit 107)
Exhibit 106: International Air Cargo at SFO, Metric Tons
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Air Mail
Air Freight
090906 Final SACOG Phase 1 Goods Movement Report THE TIOGA GROUP
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