COMPIT 2005 in Hamburg - TUHH

Fig.5: Robust assessment (global view (left) and stretched zoom (right))
Fig.5 shows results of the evaluation. The evaluation was conducted in steps of 1 day. For the 5 th day
(120h) the evaluation of the whole routes were taken into account, even if they take longer. The
figures start at the end of day 1. Till then, all routes remain feasible within more than 90% of the
ensemble members. During the second day the feasible route variants decrease drastically. E.g., only
about 20 routes remain feasible in more than 50% of the ensemble forecast members. The next days
show a successive decrease so that finally only 10 routes are left that remain feasible in 50 to 60% of
the forecast members.
Fig.6, optimized route, ETA = 143,5h, fuel consumption 608t
Fig.6 shows the fastest variant of these routes (ETA 143.5h, FUEL 608t). Furthermore, the wave data
of the deterministic forecast are depicted. All wave fields in the figure propagate from west to east.
24 hours after the departure, the ship reaches a strong wave field (upper left picture). Approaching to
this wave field during the second day, this route became infeasible at about 32% of the ensemble
members. Faster route variants, that took course closer to this wave field, mostly went infeasible. A
second wave field, passed northerly, has only minor affects to the route (upper right picture). Here,
the reduced velocity is not necessary within the deterministic forecast, but enables the route to stay
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