Static-2002 coding rules (2009) - Static-99

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These recent studies found that there is meaningful variation in the sexual recidivism rates based on factors not measured by Static-2002. Samples that were preselected to be high risk (3 samples) show the highest recidivism rates, and routine samples from the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC; 3 samples) show recidivism rates substantially lower than the original developmental samples. Consequently, in order to evaluate the recidivism risk of Mr. XXX, we need to consider the extent to which he resembles the typical member of the preselected high risk samples or the typical member of the CSC samples. The exact differences between the preselected high risk and CSC samples are not fully known; nevertheless, the following features are worth considering. The CSC Samples The Correctional Service of Canada administers sentences of two years or more. The typical member of the CSC samples would have graduated from both specialized sexual offender treatment programs as well as programs addressing other criminogenic needs. During the 1990s, when the offenders in the CSC samples were incarcerated, CSC treatment programs were based on principles that are known to be effective in reducing criminal recidivism (Risk/Need/Responsivity; Andrews & Bonta, 2006). As well, the typical member of the CSC samples would have been supported through a gradual re-integration into the community by parole supervision and human service programming. The Preselected High Risk Samples In contrast, most members of the preselected high risk samples included offenders who had been judged by a court or administrative tribunal to be of sufficiently high recidivism risk to warrant exceptional measures (e.g., preventive or indefinite detention, treatment orders, denial of statutory release). The factors considered in making these determinations are not fully known and would vary across samples; however, it would be expected that factors external to Static-2002 were considered (e.g., recent antisocial behaviour, self reported sexual deviancy, resistance to treatment, dynamic risk factors) along with factors already included in Static-2002 (e.g., number of prior sexual offence convictions). The risk estimates for Static-2002 are determined by logistic regression. This is because logistic regression takes into account the recidivism rate associated with a single score in the context of the overall relationship between Static-2002 and recidivism. This reduces the impact of unreliable, random variations in the observed recidivism rates that are due to fewer subjects within a given subgroup. The logistic regression estimates of sexual recidivism are “bounded” by the lower rates of recidivism found in the CSC samples and the higher rates found in the preselected high risk samples. For sexual recidivism, the range of risk for a score of XXXX on Static-2002 is XXXX to XXXX in five years and XXXX to XXXX in ten years. These recidivism rates, derived from the routine CSC and preselected high risk samples, are empirically based actuarial estimates. Given that the differences between samples are not fully known, evaluators need to use their professional judgement in order to make statements about where in this range the risk of a particular offender is situated. This judgement should be based on a careful consideration of the features that Mr. XXXX shares with the routine CSC samples and the preselected high risk samples. Determining an offender’s 110
isk within the empirically derived ranges is a separate task from the explicit and empirically derived actuarial estimates presented above. References Andrews, D. A., & Bonta, J. (2006). The psychology of criminal conduct (4 th ed.). Cincinnati, OH: LexisNexis. Hanson, R. K., Helmus, L., & Thornton, D. (in press). Predicting recidivism among sexual offenders: A multi-site study of Static-2002. Law and Human Behavior. Hanson, R. K., Lloyd, C. D., Helmus, L., & Thornton, D. (2008). Using multiple samples to estimate percentile ranks and relative risk ratios for actuarial risk tools: A Canadian example using Static-99 and Static-2002. Unpublished manuscript. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2003). Notes on the development of the Static-2002 (User Report No. 2003-01). Ottawa, ON: Solicitor General Canada. 111
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right o
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Table of Contents Coding Rules for
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CATEGORY IV: RELATIONSHIP TO VICTIM
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Acknowledgements We would like to t
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some occasions. That legal procedur
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sexual violence did not add increme
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information can be used to count th
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- Balance of Probabilities (a.k.a.,
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Category 1: Age CATEGORY I: AGE (Sc
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Category 2: Persistence of Sexual O
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Category 3: Deviant Sexual Interest
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Page 71 and 72: Category 4: Relationship to Victims
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Page 76 and 77: Category 4: Relationship to Victims
Page 79 and 80: Category 5: General Criminality CAT
Page 81 and 82: Category 5: General Criminality 10.
Page 83 and 84: Category 5: General Criminality Juv
Page 85 and 86: Category 5: General Criminality 11.
Page 87 and 88: Category 5: General Criminality Sen
Page 89 and 90: Category 5: General Criminality b)
Page 91 and 92: Category 5: General Criminality Spe
Page 93 and 94: Category 5: General Criminality Juv
Page 95: Category 5: General Criminality Rev
Page 98 and 99: Category 5: General Criminality Off
Page 100 and 101: Category 5: General Criminality He
Page 102 and 103: Category 5: General Criminality Exa
Page 104 and 105: Category 5: General Criminality Rul
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Page 108 and 109: References Barbaree, H. E., & Blanc
Page 111 and 112: Appendix I Static-2002 Coding Form
Page 113 and 114: Appendix II Frequencies and Percent
Page 115: Appendix III Recidivism Rate Table
Page 119: Appendix V Standard Paragraph for R
Page 124 and 125: Thornton in the low risk category.
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Static-2002 coding rules (2009) - Static-99

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