Tourism Opportunity Plan - Tourism Queensland
Tourism Opportunity Plan - Tourism Queensland
Tourism Opportunity Plan - Tourism Queensland
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3.5 The Gold Coast Visitor Market in 2020<br />
– trends and forecasts<br />
Over the next period to 2020, visitation to the Gold Coast will also<br />
be influenced by a wide range of external factors that will impact not<br />
only on visitation to the region but to <strong>Queensland</strong> and Australia as<br />
a whole. Provided below is a summary of the <strong>Tourism</strong> Forecasting<br />
Committee forecasts for future tourism demand to 2018 in Australia<br />
and <strong>Queensland</strong>;<br />
Domestic Trends and Forecasts<br />
Stable numbers of domestic trips<br />
Increased domestic visitor nights in <strong>Queensland</strong><br />
Slight decline in domestic VFR in regional <strong>Queensland</strong><br />
International Trends and Forecasts<br />
Recovery of Australia’s inbound tourism market<br />
Increased seat capacity into Australia<br />
Growth in overall international visitor numbers<br />
Increase in average length of stay<br />
Increase in international VFR in regional <strong>Queensland</strong><br />
In 2008 tourism to Australia was forecast to grow at an annual<br />
growth of around 2% for domestic visitation and 5% for international<br />
visitation. The most recent growth projections from the <strong>Tourism</strong><br />
Forecasting Committee, however, forecast an average annual<br />
growth rate of 0.5% for domestic visitation and 3.6% for international<br />
visitation to 2020.<br />
These future growth projections applied to the Gold Coast* can be<br />
seen in Figure 3, below:<br />
Figure 3: Gold Coast Visitor Forecasts to 2020<br />
Total Gold Coast Visitors (million)<br />
15<br />
14<br />
13<br />
12<br />
11<br />
10<br />
9<br />
8<br />
7<br />
6<br />
5<br />
Given the latest growth forecasts, it is anticipated that the Gold<br />
Coast will welcome 12 million visitors in 2020. This comprises an<br />
additional 1.0 million visitors compared to 2011. This equates to an<br />
additional 2,700 visitors per day.<br />
Domestic day trip visitation to the Gold Coast is expected to<br />
increase by 14% between 2011 and 2020. As outlined in Figure 4, this<br />
will result in 63% of total visitors to the Gold Coast being domestic<br />
day trip visitors, resulting in an increase of 4% in share from the<br />
market by 2020<br />
The Gold Coast is also forecasted to welcome 3.4 million Domestic<br />
Overnight Visitors in 2020, an increase of 4% from 2011 figures.<br />
By 2020, Domestic Overnight Visitors will comprise 29% of the<br />
total visitor market to the Gold Coast (Domestic Overnight Visitors<br />
currently account for 31% of all Gold Coast visitors).<br />
Figure 4: Gold Coast Market Share of Total Visitors<br />
2005, 2011 and Forecast to 2020*<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
8% 7% 8%<br />
33% 31% 29%<br />
59% 62% 63%<br />
2005 2011 2020<br />
Domestic Daytrip<br />
Domestic Overnight<br />
International<br />
*Forecasts based on year ending 2011 NVS and IVS data, applying TFC growth<br />
projection (April 2012)<br />
In order for the Gold Coast to achieve its growth targets<br />
aligned to Australia’s national strategy to enhance growth and<br />
competitiveness (the 2020 <strong>Tourism</strong> Industry Potential), the region<br />
will be required to achieve an average annual growth rate of 7.1%<br />
in visitor spend up until 2020. Should these targets be achieved<br />
the Gold Coast would receive approximately $7 billion in visitor<br />
expenditure per year by 2020.<br />
International visitation to the Gold Coast is expected to increase<br />
by 37% between 2011 and 2020. These projections are buoyed by<br />
strong growth in a number of markets and particularly from the<br />
China market.<br />
3 Our Vision<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
2011<br />
2012<br />
2013<br />
2014<br />
2015<br />
2016<br />
2017<br />
2018<br />
2019<br />
2020<br />
*Forecasts based on year ending 2011 NVS and IVS data, applying TFC growth<br />
projection (April 2012)<br />
7