Auckland City Centre Rail Link - Business Case Review - Ministry of ...

Auckland City Centre Rail Link Business Case Review | May 2011
1.2.4 Review patronage findings
The impact of the project in increasing rail patronage and reducing bus passenger
and car person trips is outlined below in Table 5. These figures come from the APT
model using base case input, and have been adjusted to take account of capacity
constraints.
Table 5: Impacts of the CCRL (from APT modelling, allowing for capacity constraints)
Passenger trips
into the CBD in
2041 morning peak
Passenger trips on
the wider network in
2041 morning peak
Rail Passenger trips in do minimum 11,378 28,149
Rail passenger trips with CCRL 17,390 37,700
Increase in passenger trips due to CCRL 6,012 9,551
Reduction in bus passenger trips 4,000 5,700
Reduction in car person trips Up to 2,000 Up to 3,851
The Review also considered the share of forecast trips into the CBD that would be
provided by the CCRL. The Business Case, using the scenario approach, estimated
there would be 123,000 trips (including walking and cycling trips) into the CBD in the
2041 morning peak period. These figures are significantly higher than the figures
derived from the overall ART strategic model, which indicates that around 98,000 11
car person and public transport passenger trips will enter the CBD during the 2041
peak period. Consequently, the Review has used figures from the 2010 ARLTS as
these provide a better comparison figure, particularly as consistent input assumptions
were being used between the relevant models. ARLTS modelling forecasts an
increase of 32,000 car person and public transport passenger trips into the CBD
between 2006 and 2041.
The analysis shows that there will be 6,000 additional rail trips into the CBD during
the 2041 morning peak as a result of the project. This is a modest 19 percent of the
additional 32,000 trips forecast into the CBD. Alternatively, the project accounts for
around six percent of the total car and public transport trips forecast into the CBD in
2041. The project would remove approximately 4,000 bus passenger trips
(approximately 10 percent of total bus trips) and around 2,000 vehicle person trips
(approximately five percent of car trips) into the CBD.
The available modelling data does not provide a sound comparative figure between
2006 and 2041 for bus trips. Nevertheless, the data indicates that, even with the
CCRL in place, travel by bus will account for:
65 percent of all passenger transport travel into the CBD in 2041
around half of the increase in travel into the CBD expected up to 2041
Table 6 provides a forecast of morning peak trips into the CBD by mode in 2041.
Figures for share of travel into the CBD should be treated as ‗order of magnitude‘
results as they require comparison of figures from different Auckland transport
models 12 .
11 This figure seems intuitively low given the predicted increase in employment, but does not include a large number
of internal trips from the forecast increase in CBD residents. It also reflects the impact of ARLTS travel demand
management (TDM) assumptions, which are expected to reduce car trips into the CBD by 21 percent.
12 Unfortunately, the APT model only provides figures for public transport modes, so it has been necessary to draw
on different data sources.
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