Auckland City Centre Rail Link - Business Case Review - Ministry of ...
Auckland City Centre Rail Link - Business Case Review - Ministry of ...
Auckland City Centre Rail Link - Business Case Review - Ministry of ...
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<strong>Auckland</strong> <strong>City</strong> <strong>Centre</strong> <strong>Rail</strong> <strong>Link</strong> <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Case</strong> <strong>Review</strong> | May 2011<br />
While the number <strong>of</strong> trains operating into Britomart without the CCRL in place will not<br />
increase after electrification, the station will be operating at close to its train capacity.<br />
Moreover it is expected that patronage will continue to increase after electrification<br />
from organic growth, i.e. the trains will get progressively fuller going into Britomart –<br />
particularly if accelerated bus feeder services, fuel prices continue increasing or more<br />
aggressive park and ride policies are pursued. Having more people boarding and<br />
alighting from trains at Britomart is likely to stress the station facilities (pedestrian<br />
access/ egress/ concourse areas) thus increasing the likelihood <strong>of</strong> service reliability<br />
issues arising from longer train turnaround times and other incidents. Given that the<br />
timetable is completely Britomart centric, delays to trains at or near Britomart <strong>of</strong>ten<br />
cause knock-on delays across the network. These reliability issues at Britomart will<br />
manifest themselves as disbenefits to passengers and it has been established that<br />
unpredictable delays have a particularly high value <strong>of</strong> time for passengers compared<br />
to that for in-vehicle time.<br />
The impact that the <strong>Auckland</strong> Council/<strong>Auckland</strong> Transport policy case would have on<br />
transport benefits estimated using the revised and corrected methodology developed<br />
by central government agencies is shown in Table 12.<br />
Table 12: Overall result - Transport Benefits<br />
<strong>Business</strong> <strong>Case</strong> ($m) <strong>Review</strong> – base case ($m) AC/AT policy case ($m)<br />
Model outputs (using an<br />
840 annualisation factor on<br />
AM benefits)<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> revised<br />
annualisation factors<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> capacity<br />
constraints<br />
Application <strong>of</strong> CBD<br />
congestion assumptions<br />
Additional Cumulative Additional Cumulative Additional Cumulative<br />
230 230 220 220 548 548<br />
285 515 50 270 112 660<br />
455 970 65 335 203 863<br />
349 1,319 52 387 94 957<br />
Extra CBD employment -<br />
low<br />
62 1,019<br />
Extra CBD employment -<br />
high<br />
249 1,206<br />
Benefits from reduced<br />
unreliability as a result <strong>of</strong><br />
173<br />
overcrowding<br />
Total benefits 1,319 1,319 387 387 1,192 / 1,379<br />
1.3 Conclusion<br />
The <strong>Review</strong> <strong>of</strong> the <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Case</strong> has identified some issues with the <strong>Business</strong> <strong>Case</strong><br />
calculation <strong>of</strong> transport benefits and corrected these. The <strong>Review</strong> base case in our<br />
view represents a lower bound to the transport patronage and benefits. The Policy<br />
case in our view represents an upper bound.<br />
<strong>Auckland</strong> Council/<strong>Auckland</strong> Transport have calculated that the expected rail trips as<br />
a result <strong>of</strong> the CCRL in 2041 are between 23,800 and 31,000 compared to the<br />
17,400 in the <strong>Review</strong> base case and the transport benefits <strong>of</strong> the CCRL are between<br />
$1.2 billion and $1.4 billion compared to the $387 million in the central government<br />
agencies base case.<br />
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