Auckland City Centre Rail Link - Business Case Review - Ministry of ...

Auckland City Centre Rail Link Business Case Review | May 2011
an increase in the residential population of 84,000, from 17,900 in 2006 to
102,000 in 2041
an increase in full time equivalent jobs of 58,305, from 63,800 in 2006 to 122,105
in 2041
The ARLTS land use inputs are based on the former Auckland Regional Council‘s
Regional Growth Strategy, as embodied in Plan Change Six. Land use categories
were manually adjusted on a zone by zone basis to match the Plan Change 6
desired outcomes for each zone.
Achieving the ARLTS forecasts for CBD employment will require an increased rate of
employment growth in the CBD in comparison to past trends. It will also require the
CBD to increase its share of overall employment. The available data outlined below
in Table 14, shows recent average annual growth rates, for a 9 to 10 year period, of
between 1.4 and 1.7 percent, with a peak of around 2.0 percent during the period of
strong economic growth between 2000 and 2006.
Table 14: CBD employment trends 1996-2009 19
Source 1996 2000/
2001
2006 2009 Average
annual
growth
percentage
Statistics NZ Census (total
workforce)
Price Waterhouse Coopers
Waterfront Study (Full Time
Equivalents)
Business Case, Appendix K
(total employment)
Auckland City Council
(employment)
50,907 50,823 60,075 1.7
82,677 93,566 1.4
71,170 81,200 1.5
80,059 90,600 2.1
The ARLTS forecasts for the CBD require an average annual growth rate of 1.9
percent per annum (pa). This compares to a forecast growth rate of 1.5 percent pa
for regional employment to 2041, and therefore requires the CBD to increase its
share of employment from 12.3 percent (using ARLTS figures) to 14.1 percent. The
ARLTS figures for the CBD can also be compared to a forecast by the former
Auckland City Council. Their medium forecast predicted employment growth of
53,200 (from 90,600 in 2006 to 143,800 in 2041) which requires an average annual
growth rate of 1.3 percent.
The ARLTS figures for CBD employment growth seem slightly ambitious in light of
recent trends. However, they were used in the Review for modelling transport and
WEBs to ensure consistency with other project appraisal and regional planning. The
Review‘s key conclusion is that assumptions for additional CBD employment growth
beyond the ARLTS forecasts require rates of growth that become increasingly
19 There are significant differences in employment estimates for the CBD depending on the source. The Review has
not attempted to resolve these differences, but they are likely to be explained, in part, by different employment
definitions and survey areas.
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