Auckland City Centre Rail Link - Business Case Review - Ministry of ...

Auckland City Centre Rail Link Business Case Review | May 2011
The patronage modelling in the Review has assumed the inclusion of the Parnell
Station to ensure consistency with the ARLTS. However, there are concerns about
the operational implications of Parnell Station on the wider network. The operational
modelling conducted in early 2010 indicated that, without Parnell Station (which was
outside the scope of the upgrade project), the Western and Southern Lines have
suitable capacity to absorb delays in the turnaround time at Britomart as well as outer
termini. The Eastern Line will be subject to delay from disturbances but the effect is
likely to be small. Modelling shows that the inclusion of Parnell Station reduces
allowable turnaround times at Britomart by a third (from six to four minutes) and
therefore constrains the ability for the network to recover from delays 14 .
Current network and station improvements are focused on 10-minute peak
frequencies and the new trains will be purpose-built for metro operations, including
rapid boarding and disembarking. However, it is also clear that there are several key
risks including: actual passenger crowding thresholds and boarding times, and the
performance of the network at key points. Much will depend on how effectively the
network is operated and the extent to which service timetables mitigate the
operational risks associated with the construction of Parnell Station. At this point, with
electrification still 2 years away, central government officials consider there is
insufficient evidence, and too many unknowns, to assess the level of disruption that
may occur on the network as a result of crowding or operational issues, and the
extent to which these issues may be resolved by the CCRL.
1.3 Assessment of alternatives
1.3.1 Business Case approach
The Business Case considered alternative options to achieve the transport
objectives, aside from the CCRL, but the transport impacts of these were not
modelled nor were the costs estimated in all cases. The short list of options was:
on Surface Bus Route Improvements
a Central City Bus Tunnel with three stations
an expanded Britomart Terminus (a third rail track between Newmarket and
Britomart)
As a result of the absence of empirical information on costs and benefits, the options
were evaluated against the preferred CCRL option using a multi-criteria analysis, with
the criteria scored by a group of workshop participants with transport systems
expertise.
1.3.2 Review findings
The Review‘s main conclusion was that the analysis of alternatives did not meet
Treasury Business Case guidelines for evaluating significant capital projects that
require Crown funding. The guidelines set out an early approach of strategic
assessment, investment logic mapping, development of a long list of options,
selection of a short list of options and evaluation of the remaining options in terms of
their costs and benefits. The lack of a strategic front-end, and of a cost benefit
analysis of the short list of options, reflects the origin of the Business Case as a
specific request to enable route protection for the CCRL, for which the approach
taken may well have been sufficient.
14 If Auckland decides to proceed with this station, without further network improvements, changes to the service
pattern or operating procedures will be needed to preserve overall network reliability.
20