the CAA said - Heathrow Airport

CAP 1027
Chapter 3: Traffic Forecasts
C H A P T E R 3
T r a f f i c F o r e c a s t s
3.1 This chapter discusses the CAA's traffic forecasts for Heathrow for
Q6. It sets out the background to the forecasts and the process
undertaken during CE to improve forecasting capability. It evaluates
key issues such as demand shocks. It concludes with the CAA’s
initial proposals for the traffic forecast that contributes towards the
calculation of the Q6 price control.
Background – improving traffic forecasting capability
3.2 Traffic forecasts are important in a number of ways. They define the
denominator in the price cap for Q6, which sets a maximum average
revenue yield. They also influence other items dependent on
passenger numbers, such as commercial revenues.
3.3 In its Q5 price control decision, the CAA used traffic forecasts that
predicted a total of 371.8 million passengers in the five years between
2008/09 and 2012/13. This was slightly higher than the final traffic
forecast proposed by BAA and lower than the traffic forecasts given
by the CC and the airlines. Figure 3.1 shows that all these forecasts
significantly exceeded the actual passenger traffic at the airport over
Q5.
April 2013 Page 42