Annual review and forecast of Utah coal - Utah Geological Survey ...

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24 Utah Geological Survey 18,000 Thousand short tons 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 Transportation Residential and Commercial Other Industrial Coke Plates Electric Utilities 3,000 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Coal Report, 2008; UGS Note: 2010 values are estimated, data available in table 12 Figure 6. Consumption of coal in Utah by end use, 1960–2010. Reserves The Kaiparowits Plateau coalfield is estimated to contain about 9.1 billion tons, or 60.6%, of Utah’s remaining potentially recoverable coal (figure 7); however, most of this coal cannot be developed because it lies within the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. Other nonproducing Utah coalfields with good quality resources are far from transportation networks and require higher prices to justify the higher transportation costs. As a result, Utah coal production will continue to rely heavily on resources in the Wasatch Plateau coalfield, estimated at 1.3 billion tons; the Emery coalfield, estimated at 0.8 billion tons; and the Book Cliffs coalfield, with resources estimated at 0.7 billion tons. (Note: resource estimates are only constrained by geologic conditions, whereas reserve estimates are also constrained by economic factors). Reserves could also be reduced at existing mines if regulators require companies to modify their mine plans (e.g., insertion of barrier pillars between longwall sections) as production gets deeper. Utah coal mines are working with state and federal regulators to both maximize miner safety and the amount of recoverable coal in order to maintain a sustainable industry. Most Utah mining companies have leased coal reserves sufficient for 10 to 15 years of production. However, mines are having a harder time adding new leases to extend their reserve base. Figure 8 demonstrates this fact; subtracting cumulative production from cumulative tonnage leased from 1975 to 2009 shows a general negative trend indicating that Utah production is outpacing tonnage leased. In fact, the Cottonwood (recently leased to Canyon Fuel Company) and North Horn tracts, both located in the central Wasatch Plateau, may represent the last large virgin tracts of good quality, accessible coal that are not adjacent to an operating mine. Combined reserves in these two tracts are estimated to exceed 100 million tons and could provide 20 to 30 years of production for two longwall operations. In addition, other reserves exist in the southern Book Cliffs where UtahAmerican has begun development work on the Lila Canyon mine. In total, the UGS estimated in 2002 that roughly 275 million tons of reserves were available in the Wasatch Plateau coalfield, 686 million tons in the Book Cliffs, and 200 million tons in the Emery coalfield, for a total of 1.16 billion tons (as recorded in Appendix 25 of the BLM Price Field Office Draft Resource Management Plan, 2004). From 2003 to 2009, the reserves in the Wasatch Plateau coalfield were diminished by 103 million tons, in the Book Cliffs by 58 million tons, and in the Emery coalfield by 6 million tons. Thus, in 2010, the remaining 993 million tons of reserves in Utah’s three producing fields could support annual production of 25 million tons for about 40 more years. However, factors such as coal quality, access, and other environmental or safety issues were not considered in the 2002 reserve calculation, so the actual recoverable reserves may be less than the in-ground estimate. The rapid depletion of central Utah coal will require future operators to consider difficult, lower-quality, or remote coal resources. For example, the Emery mine in the
Annual review and forecast of Utah coal production and distribution—2009 25 Kolob 5.4% 805 Mst Emery 5.3% 802 Mst Book Cliffs 4.5% 677 Mst Henry Mountains 3.2% 485 Mst Other 5.5% 825 Mst Alton 7.0% 1056 Mst Wasatch Plateau 8.4% 1268 Mst Kaiparowits 60.6% 9096 Mst Source: Smith and Jahanbani, 1988; Quick and others, 2004; Bon and others, 2006 Note: Mst – Million short tons, data available in appendix table A4 Figure 7. Remaining estimated recoverable resources in Utah by coalfield, 2009. 40 20 0 Cumulative tonnage leased minus cumulative production Reggression line showing negative trend Million short tons -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: BLM, SITLA, UGS Note: The negative trend indicates coal is being produced faster than new tonnage is being leased. Figure 8. Net increase/loss of new coal tonnage leased in Utah compared to cumulative production, 1975–2009. southern part of the Emery coalfield is located near unleased resources that could total more than 100 million tons, including resources in the Hidden Valley area, but these resources tend to have higher sulfur contents. Also, the proposed mine in the Alton coalfield could produce up to 2.0 million tons per year of subbituminous coal from a projected reserve base of 40 to 45 million tons. These resources, and others, may become more attractive if prices keep rising and coal washing becomes more economic.
Page 1 and 2: ANNUAL REVIEW AND FORECAST OF UTAH
Page 3 and 4: STATE OF UTAH Gary R. Herbert, Gove
Page 5 and 6: CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.........
Page 7 and 8: ANNUAL REVIEW AND FORECAST OF UTAH
Page 9 and 10: Annual review and forecast of Utah
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