The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, and the crisis:

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VOX Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists tices. Trade, by contrast, concerns every G20 nation. This simple truth seems to have escaped the attention it deserves – perhaps because the G20 process is guided by Finance Ministries and Central Banks. Whatever the reason, it is odd that the emerging-economy members of the G20 have not insisted on a higher profile for trade issues that affect them much more immediately than agenda items such as financial reform or long drawn-out efforts to readjust the 'shares and chairs' at the IMF, World Bank and other international financial institutions. The creeping protection we've seen to date is not yet a major cause of falling trade; it is not yet an independent threat to aggregate demand. But a spiral of murky protectionism is the shoe that hasn't dropped. It is one of the few things that have not yet gone wrong in this crisis. But it could. History teaches us that protection does not move in a straight line. It is critical that G20 leaders get ahead of the crisis and agree cooperation that prevents murky protectionism and plummeting exports from threatening the global recovery. References Hiratsuka, Daisuke (2005). "Vertical Intra-Regional Production Networks in East Asia: A Case Study of Hard Disc Drive Industry," IDE working paper. Baldwin, Richard (2008). "Managing the noodle bowl: The fragility of East Asian regionalism", The Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 53, No. 3 (2008) 449-478. About the authors Richard Edward Baldwin has been Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva, since 1991 and Policy Director of CEPR since 2006. He was Co-managing Editor of the journal Economic Policy from 2000 to 2005, and Programme Director of CEPR's International Trade programme from 1991 to 2001. Before that he was Senior Staff Economist for the President's Council of Economic Advisors in the Bush Administration (1990-1991). Prior to going to Geneva, he was Associate Professor at Columbia University Business School, having done his PhD in economics at MIT with Paul Krugman. He was visiting professor at MIT in 2002/03 and has taught at universities in Italy, Germany and Norway. He has also worked as consultant for the European Commission, OECD, the World Bank, EFTA, USAID and UNCTAD. The author of numerous books and articles, his research interests include international trade, globalisation, regionalism and European integration. He is editor-in-Chief of Vox. Simon J. Evenett is Professor of International Trade and Economic Development, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland and Programme Director of the International Trade and Regional Economics Programme at the Centre of Economic Policy Research CEPR. Professor Evenett is an expert in the commercial policy and strategies of the USA, EU, and the rising economic powers, such as China. He also closely follows WTO trade negotiations and bilateral and regional trade negotiations. Professor Evenett obtained his bachelors degree in economics from the University of Cambridge and his doctoral degree in economics from Yale University. Previously he has taught at Oxford University and for ten years held fellowships at the Brookings Institution, Washington DC. He was also Director of Economic Research at the World Trade Institute, and has twice served as a World Bank official. Professor Evenett has 8
The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, and the crisis served as a Member on several high-level committees on international commerce, including The French Trade Minister's High Level Group on Globalisation; The Warwick Commission on the Future of the Multilateral Trading System; and The Zedillo Committee on the Global Trade and Financial Architecture. He is widely published and is a frequent public lecturer, including speaking to corporate executives about international business strategy. 9
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