The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, and the crisis:
The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, and the crisis:
The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, and the crisis:
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VOX<br />
Research-based policy analysis <strong>and</strong> commentary from leading economists<br />
<strong>the</strong> globe is through <strong>the</strong> Internet. Additional surveillance does not need to be 'run' by<br />
an existing institution or even located in a single media outlet. But for practical purposes<br />
a single high pr<strong>of</strong>ile website, funded <strong>and</strong> managed by for example, <strong>the</strong> World<br />
Bank, would improve <strong>the</strong> effectiveness <strong>of</strong> surveillance. Specifically, websites that<br />
allow editorial access by individuals have proved <strong>the</strong>ir worth in spreading information.<br />
But <strong>the</strong>y are also vulnerable to <strong>the</strong> 'abuse <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> commons'. Moderation is essential<br />
to ensure comments are transparent (made by identified individuals), on-topic,<br />
<strong>and</strong> proportional. But moderation is labour-intensive <strong>and</strong> never free <strong>of</strong> controversy.<br />
In this case, it will need moderators with subject knowledge <strong>and</strong> probably some institutional<br />
affiliation to assure funding <strong>and</strong> independence.<br />
This proposal calls for <strong>the</strong> G20 countries to agree on some st<strong>and</strong>ards that could be<br />
monitored at <strong>the</strong> website at <strong>the</strong>ir April 2009 meeting (more about <strong>the</strong>se later).<br />
Surveillance would <strong>the</strong>n operate as follows:<br />
• Participating governments (G20 <strong>and</strong> any o<strong>the</strong>rs who signed-on to <strong>the</strong> G20<br />
st<strong>and</strong>ards) would be invited to notify actual or planned measures by o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
governments that were inconsistent with <strong>the</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ards adopted by <strong>the</strong> G20<br />
• Private sector bodies (business, non-business, academic) <strong>and</strong> individuals would<br />
be able to post (moderated) information on protectionist measures <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
(moderated) views on any notified measures. Private information <strong>and</strong> comments<br />
would not be limited to measures breaching <strong>the</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ards adopted by G20<br />
governments.<br />
• G20 governments, <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs that signed on, would agree to respond to<br />
allegations concerning a breach <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ards within 10 days <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
notifications appearing on <strong>the</strong> website. <strong>The</strong>y may also respond to any o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
criticisms.<br />
No o<strong>the</strong>r action should be necessary. <strong>The</strong> pressure generated through this highly public<br />
process (we would expect to see key news media tuned into <strong>the</strong> website) should be<br />
sufficient to pressure <strong>the</strong> "<strong>of</strong>fending government" into not taking <strong>the</strong> planned protectionist<br />
measure. An advantage <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> proposal is that <strong>the</strong> entire process from notification<br />
to justification or st<strong>and</strong>-down could take place in <strong>the</strong> space <strong>of</strong> a fortnight.<br />
What triggers a notification?<br />
A notification to <strong>the</strong> surveillance mechanism should be triggered by a measure that<br />
is judged inconsistent with a commonsense st<strong>and</strong>still commitment to be adopted by<br />
G20 members <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r countries willing to participate. We all know that a measure<br />
need not be inconsistent with a government's WTO obligations to be capable <strong>of</strong><br />
harming international <strong>trade</strong> <strong>and</strong>, in any event, <strong>the</strong> surveillance mechanism should<br />
not aim to supplant WTO notifications or dispute settlement. A commonsense st<strong>and</strong>still<br />
would also allow non-WTO members like Russia to be part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> surveillance<br />
mechanism.<br />
No st<strong>and</strong>ard that G20 governments would endorse will cover all protectionist<br />
action. Some governments (<strong>the</strong> US for example) could not sign-away individuals'<br />
rights in law to seek '<strong>trade</strong>-remedies' such as anti-dumping duties <strong>and</strong> safeguards. Yet<br />
<strong>the</strong>se measures are among <strong>the</strong> most harmful to <strong>trade</strong> <strong>and</strong> prone to 'tit-for-tat' responses<br />
from trading partners. <strong>The</strong> best way to h<strong>and</strong>le <strong>the</strong>m would be to allow private notifications<br />
on <strong>the</strong> Surveillance Website, identifying <strong>the</strong> harm while flagging <strong>the</strong>ir 'consistency'<br />
with <strong>the</strong> G20 undertaking.<br />
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