AAPG EXPLORER Powers Winner from page 24 the future <strong>of</strong> oil and gas exploration and production? Welte: It was not by accident that I named the basin modeling company I had founded Integrated Exploration Systems. Organic geochemistry was, and will be, one <strong>of</strong> the core disciplines in basin modeling, simply because organic molecules derived from formerly biological material have a fantastic memory. Characteristic mixtures <strong>of</strong> hydrocarbon molecules and especially so-called biomarkers can tell us about their origin, source facies, maturity and, in certain instances, even about distances <strong>of</strong> migration. This memory effect <strong>of</strong> organic molecules and the understanding <strong>of</strong> petroleum The mobilization <strong>of</strong> the hydrocarbons in mature source formations will stimulate additional geomechanical and geochemical research to better understand and improve production efficiency <strong>of</strong> shale oil and shale gas potential. formation based on chemical kinetics was a game-changer in exploration. It opened the door from a static approach (find the trap) to a dynamic approach – that is, to understanding, reconstructing and quantifying the chain <strong>of</strong> processes from source to trap. This, in turn, enforced a more focused collection <strong>of</strong> the all-important geological and geophysical subsurface data. In other words, this dynamic “petroleum systems modeling” approach became the modern blueprint for integration. As a consequence <strong>of</strong> the numerical simulation <strong>of</strong> petroleum-related geoprocesses in space and time, product prediction and risk assessment also gained a superior quality. There is, in my eyes, no question that both exploration and production benefit alike from this integrated dynamic approach <strong>of</strong> what was originally called basin modeling. Product prediction and improved risk assessment also allow earlier and better planning <strong>of</strong> costly technical infrastructure and the use <strong>of</strong> financial resources. EXPLORER: What is your view <strong>of</strong> the current activity in unconventional resource development? Welte: Unconventional petroleum resources, like shale oil and shale gas, are part <strong>of</strong> the natural generation sequence <strong>of</strong> petroleum. The current activity in unconventional resource development simply has shifted the emphasis from the end <strong>of</strong> the petroleum systems line, existing accumulations in classical reservoirs, to the beginning <strong>of</strong> the petroleum systems line – the hydrocarbons that have been retained in source rocks, or their organic-lean immediate neighborhood. This new interest in mature source formations certainly gained a great momentum due to advances in directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing. The mobilization <strong>of</strong> the hydrocarbons in mature source formations will stimulate additional geomechanical and geochemical research to better understand and improve production efficiency <strong>of</strong> shale oil and shale gas potential. The integrated petroleum systems modeling described before is certainly an important and promising approach to further develop unconventional petroleum resources. EXPLORER: What do you think about the current controversy over climate change? Welte: The repeatedly propagated claim by the media and politics <strong>of</strong> a man-made climate change has, since the late 1980s, pushed aside the chance <strong>of</strong> an honest scientific debate in many Western countries. Science organizations, inclusive <strong>of</strong> those in the geosciences, failed to bring this issue back to objectivity. The reasons for this failure are certainly diverse, but one <strong>of</strong> many reasons is the close association <strong>of</strong> certain scientific circles with politics and the media. Geoscientists know that climate change is a normal, natural phenomenon, which occurred frequently during the Earth’s history. They also know that the paleoclimate record <strong>of</strong> millions <strong>of</strong> years does not support the hypothesis <strong>of</strong> a decisive influence <strong>of</strong> atmospheric CO 2 on the Earth’s climate. There is ample evidence that during the great ice ages in the Silurian and Carboniferous/Permian, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were much higher than today. We know from ice core data spanning several 100,000 years that it was the temperature that increased first, and that the rise in atmospheric CO 2 was always lagging behind. 26 MAY 2013 WWW.AAPG.ORG EXPLORER: How should geoscientists respond? Welte: As geoscientists, we are aware <strong>of</strong> the fact that there are great uncertainties in understanding the details <strong>of</strong> the natural carbon cycle with respect to its different sources and sinks and the inherent flow dynamics and quantities. Since the man-made CO 2 amounts to approximately 6 percent <strong>of</strong> the global CO 2 cycle, the impact <strong>of</strong> anthropogenic CO 2 is still obscured by the uncertainties within the much bigger natural cycle. It is high time that we, as geoscientists, raise our voice loudly and inform the public everywhere that the CO 2 hypothesis, derived from purposely designed computer models, stands on weak ground and is far from being confirmed. From my own experience I know that a critical review <strong>of</strong> the CO 2 hypothesis, which is really necessary, only has a chance <strong>of</strong> success if it is made via a neutral, highly respected and scientifically competent platform. EXPLORER
AAPG EXPLORER WWW.AAPG.ORG MAY 2013 27