Recent Annual Report - Gabelli
Recent Annual Report - Gabelli
Recent Annual Report - Gabelli
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Barron’s 2013 Roundtable<br />
Mario J. <strong>Gabelli</strong>, our Chief Investment Officer, has appeared in the prestigious Barron’s Roundtable<br />
discussion annually since 1980. Many of our readers enjoyed the inclusion of selected and edited comments<br />
from Barron’s Roundtable in previous reports to shareholders. As is our custom, we are including selected<br />
comments of Mario <strong>Gabelli</strong> from Barron’s 2013 Roundtable, published on January 21, 2013.<br />
B<br />
arron’s: The stock market is<br />
coming off a good year, which<br />
some of you even predicted.<br />
What do you think of stocks now?<br />
Mario, start us off.<br />
<strong>Gabelli</strong>: Investors have been withdrawing<br />
money from the stock market. We have<br />
seen a negative flow of funds. But let’s<br />
look at China and Japan, which account<br />
for 20% of the $75 trillion global<br />
economy. They have a pretty good shot at<br />
starting their engines and reaccelerating.<br />
Europe is about 20% of the world<br />
economy, and is still a work in progress.<br />
The U.S. is 21%. The U.S. consumer’s net<br />
worth is at an all-time high. He is<br />
reducing debt. This is owed to a<br />
combination of Bernanke, Bernanke,<br />
Bernanke – in other words, the Federal<br />
Reserve [under Chairman Ben Bernanke]<br />
has been printing money, which has<br />
geared to drive financial assets and real<br />
estate prices higher.<br />
Barron’s: Get to the point. Are you<br />
bullish or bearish?<br />
<strong>Gabelli</strong>: I’m getting there. Corporate<br />
earnings will be okay in 2013, and 2014<br />
looks even better. Interest rates might<br />
rise, but the market has discounted that.<br />
Given the negative flow of funds and the<br />
market’s relatively low price/earnings<br />
multiple, you have to be positive. The<br />
BARRON’S<br />
ROUNDTABLE<br />
MARIO J. GABELLI<br />
Chairman and Chief Investment Officer – Value Portfolios<br />
GAMCO Investors, Inc.<br />
Here’s What’s Cooking for 2013<br />
The members of the Barron’s Roundtable see a year of modest gains for U.S. stocks, trouble for<br />
bonds, and good news for gold. Also featured this week: the best investment bets of<br />
Felix Zulauf and Mario <strong>Gabelli</strong>. How to play deal stocks, and Japan.<br />
Excerpted from January 21, 2013 by Lauren R. Rublin<br />
stock market could face a lot of potholes<br />
in the near term, and on balance, I don’t<br />
expect the market to rise more than 5%<br />
this year. But I have never been more<br />
excited about specific stocks. This year,<br />
you will be able to make a lot of money as<br />
a result of financial engineering –<br />
companies engaging in deals, takeovers,<br />
split-ups, spinoffs, and such. It is a<br />
phenomenal time to make money in the<br />
market. You get stocks like SodaStream<br />
International (ticker: SODA), which I’m<br />
not recommending, rising to $48 from<br />
$36. It will be a fantastic year to pick<br />
individual stocks.<br />
Barron’s: Then why will the broader<br />
indices see only modest gains?<br />
<strong>Gabelli</strong>: Our financial system has<br />
structural problems, and at some point the<br />
Fed will have to start withdrawing all the<br />
money it has poured into the system.<br />
Gross: Whenever somebody says, “I’ve<br />
never been more excited,” I run the other<br />
way.<br />
<strong>Gabelli</strong>: Well, I’m also excited about<br />
being short bonds.<br />
Barron’s: Mario, what did you bring us<br />
today?<br />
<strong>Gabelli</strong>: If you had been sitting here 12<br />
years ago, you wouldn’t have heard of<br />
Twitter or Facebook [FB] or Google<br />
[GOOG]. If you were here 15 years ago,<br />
3<br />
you were focused on Cisco and a bunch<br />
of tech companies. I am going to talk<br />
about something that has been around<br />
much, much longer. Homer’s Odyssey<br />
mentioned one of the oldest forms of<br />
processed food: sausages. The city of<br />
Frankfurt, in Germany, honored the<br />
creation of the hot dog at its 500th<br />
anniversary. Sausages will be around for<br />
the next couple of hundred years, too.<br />
Abby and I have discussed how you<br />
should be able to make money this year<br />
from spinoffs, split-ups, and oldfashioned<br />
mergers and acquisitions. She<br />
suggested M&A activity will pick up<br />
because companies want to grow. So, how<br />
do you combine sausages and spinoffs?<br />
Barron’s: We haven’t a clue.<br />
<strong>Gabelli</strong>: Hillshire Brands [HSH] makes<br />
sausages and hot dogs. It was spun out of<br />
Sara Lee, which I recommended in the<br />
past. Hillshire has 122 million shares outstanding.<br />
Investors got one share for<br />
every five shares of Sara Lee. Hillshire<br />
had $694 million of net debt as of<br />
Sept. 29. It could generate $4.1 billion of<br />
revenue in the fiscal year ending June 30.<br />
Earnings will be $1.60 to $1.65 a share.<br />
Three or four companies were looking to<br />
buy Hillshire from Sara Lee before it was<br />
spun off. It is about a $2.5 billion market.<br />
The sausage market is growing by about<br />
5% a year in the U.S. Breakfast sausages