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Recent Annual Report - Gabelli

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Barron’s 2013 Roundtable<br />

Mario J. <strong>Gabelli</strong>, our Chief Investment Officer, has appeared in the prestigious Barron’s Roundtable<br />

discussion annually since 1980. Many of our readers enjoyed the inclusion of selected and edited comments<br />

from Barron’s Roundtable in previous reports to shareholders. As is our custom, we are including selected<br />

comments of Mario <strong>Gabelli</strong> from Barron’s 2013 Roundtable, published on January 21, 2013.<br />

B<br />

arron’s: The stock market is<br />

coming off a good year, which<br />

some of you even predicted.<br />

What do you think of stocks now?<br />

Mario, start us off.<br />

<strong>Gabelli</strong>: Investors have been withdrawing<br />

money from the stock market. We have<br />

seen a negative flow of funds. But let’s<br />

look at China and Japan, which account<br />

for 20% of the $75 trillion global<br />

economy. They have a pretty good shot at<br />

starting their engines and reaccelerating.<br />

Europe is about 20% of the world<br />

economy, and is still a work in progress.<br />

The U.S. is 21%. The U.S. consumer’s net<br />

worth is at an all-time high. He is<br />

reducing debt. This is owed to a<br />

combination of Bernanke, Bernanke,<br />

Bernanke – in other words, the Federal<br />

Reserve [under Chairman Ben Bernanke]<br />

has been printing money, which has<br />

geared to drive financial assets and real<br />

estate prices higher.<br />

Barron’s: Get to the point. Are you<br />

bullish or bearish?<br />

<strong>Gabelli</strong>: I’m getting there. Corporate<br />

earnings will be okay in 2013, and 2014<br />

looks even better. Interest rates might<br />

rise, but the market has discounted that.<br />

Given the negative flow of funds and the<br />

market’s relatively low price/earnings<br />

multiple, you have to be positive. The<br />

BARRON’S<br />

ROUNDTABLE<br />

MARIO J. GABELLI<br />

Chairman and Chief Investment Officer – Value Portfolios<br />

GAMCO Investors, Inc.<br />

Here’s What’s Cooking for 2013<br />

The members of the Barron’s Roundtable see a year of modest gains for U.S. stocks, trouble for<br />

bonds, and good news for gold. Also featured this week: the best investment bets of<br />

Felix Zulauf and Mario <strong>Gabelli</strong>. How to play deal stocks, and Japan.<br />

Excerpted from January 21, 2013 by Lauren R. Rublin<br />

stock market could face a lot of potholes<br />

in the near term, and on balance, I don’t<br />

expect the market to rise more than 5%<br />

this year. But I have never been more<br />

excited about specific stocks. This year,<br />

you will be able to make a lot of money as<br />

a result of financial engineering –<br />

companies engaging in deals, takeovers,<br />

split-ups, spinoffs, and such. It is a<br />

phenomenal time to make money in the<br />

market. You get stocks like SodaStream<br />

International (ticker: SODA), which I’m<br />

not recommending, rising to $48 from<br />

$36. It will be a fantastic year to pick<br />

individual stocks.<br />

Barron’s: Then why will the broader<br />

indices see only modest gains?<br />

<strong>Gabelli</strong>: Our financial system has<br />

structural problems, and at some point the<br />

Fed will have to start withdrawing all the<br />

money it has poured into the system.<br />

Gross: Whenever somebody says, “I’ve<br />

never been more excited,” I run the other<br />

way.<br />

<strong>Gabelli</strong>: Well, I’m also excited about<br />

being short bonds.<br />

Barron’s: Mario, what did you bring us<br />

today?<br />

<strong>Gabelli</strong>: If you had been sitting here 12<br />

years ago, you wouldn’t have heard of<br />

Twitter or Facebook [FB] or Google<br />

[GOOG]. If you were here 15 years ago,<br />

3<br />

you were focused on Cisco and a bunch<br />

of tech companies. I am going to talk<br />

about something that has been around<br />

much, much longer. Homer’s Odyssey<br />

mentioned one of the oldest forms of<br />

processed food: sausages. The city of<br />

Frankfurt, in Germany, honored the<br />

creation of the hot dog at its 500th<br />

anniversary. Sausages will be around for<br />

the next couple of hundred years, too.<br />

Abby and I have discussed how you<br />

should be able to make money this year<br />

from spinoffs, split-ups, and oldfashioned<br />

mergers and acquisitions. She<br />

suggested M&A activity will pick up<br />

because companies want to grow. So, how<br />

do you combine sausages and spinoffs?<br />

Barron’s: We haven’t a clue.<br />

<strong>Gabelli</strong>: Hillshire Brands [HSH] makes<br />

sausages and hot dogs. It was spun out of<br />

Sara Lee, which I recommended in the<br />

past. Hillshire has 122 million shares outstanding.<br />

Investors got one share for<br />

every five shares of Sara Lee. Hillshire<br />

had $694 million of net debt as of<br />

Sept. 29. It could generate $4.1 billion of<br />

revenue in the fiscal year ending June 30.<br />

Earnings will be $1.60 to $1.65 a share.<br />

Three or four companies were looking to<br />

buy Hillshire from Sara Lee before it was<br />

spun off. It is about a $2.5 billion market.<br />

The sausage market is growing by about<br />

5% a year in the U.S. Breakfast sausages

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