Chapter 7 - Ensemble methods.pdf

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Reliability diagrams – reliability is an important attribute of ensemble forecasts of dichotomous events (ones that occur or do not occur at a grid point or over an area) Using a large number of archived ensemble forecasts, select the forecasts where the forecasted probability of occurrence of an event was p f . Of those events, what was the observed frequency of occurrence p o ? Do this for all the different thresholds in the forecast probabilities, and plot as above.
An example of a real reliability diagram Single-model IC ensemble Multi-model super-ensemble
Page 1 and 2: Chapter 7 Ensemble methods
Page 3 and 4: The essence of ensemble prediction
Page 5 and 6: Deterministic vs. ensemble predicti
Page 7 and 8: Historical context • Since the 19
Page 9 and 10: Compromises with ensemble predictio
Page 11 and 12: High predictability Example of diff
Page 13 and 14: Defining the ensemble members • I
Page 15: Verification of ensemble prediction
Page 19 and 20: Rank histograms • Also called ver
Page 21 and 22: • Follow the same process for all
Page 23 and 24: Quantitatively interpreting • Man
Page 25 and 26: Calibration of ensembles • Calibr
Page 27 and 28: Time lagged ensemble • Advantage:
Page 29 and 30: Short-range ensemble prediction wit
Page 31 and 32: The ensemble mean • These fields
Page 33 and 34: 12 h Spaghetti plots: 36 h 84 h 552
Page 35 and 36: Probability of exceedance plots The
Page 37 and 38: “Stamp maps”
Page 39 and 40: An “electricity-gram” - an exam
Page 41 and 42: • Decision to protect will have c
Page 43: • Such an approach to decision ma

Chapter 7 - Ensemble methods.pdf

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?