Chapter 7 - Ensemble methods.pdf
Chapter 7 - Ensemble methods.pdf
Chapter 7 - Ensemble methods.pdf
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
• Over-forecasting bias – Observations tend to fall in the<br />
lower intervals of the ensemble. Forecast values are<br />
generally too high.<br />
• Under-forecasting bias – Observations tend to fall in<br />
the upper intervals of the ensemble. Forecast values<br />
are generally too low.<br />
• Rank uniformity – Ideal situation<br />
• Under-dispersion – Observations tend to fall in the<br />
upper and lower intervals. Forecasts are too similar to<br />
each other…need more spread.<br />
• Over-dispersion – Observations tend to fall in the<br />
center intervals. Forecasts are too dispersed.
Change language