Chapter 7 - Ensemble methods.pdf

Deterministic vs. ensemble prediction
• Without ensemble prediction (deterministic
forecast) – there is one forecast state of the
atmosphere, and the user has no information
about the confidence we should place in it.
– Compared to yesterday’s forecast
– One part of the model grid compared to others
• With ensemble prediction (probabilistic forecasts)
– we get a better forecast of the most probable
conditions, and we get uncertainty information
(“spread” of ensemble members).