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Chapter 7 - Ensemble methods.pdf

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Probability of exceedance plots<br />

The probability<br />

that near-surface<br />

wind gusts will<br />

exceed 50 m/s at<br />

the 42-hour lead<br />

of a forecast for 26<br />

December 1999,<br />

based on an<br />

ECMWF 50-<br />

member<br />

ensemble

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