Energy - IUCN

elating to NA were consulted. Population growth rates used in various reports by
WAPDA in connection with the planning of hydro-electric resources in the area
were looked into. Discussion were held with the Planning and Development
Department of Northern Areas and NAPWD officials. All investigations confirmed
that growth rate to be adopted after 1981 census was on a lower side-compared to
the inter-censal growth rate. Therefore, annual growth rates of 4.5 percent was used
for A-1 load centres 3.5 percent for A, 3.2 percent for B and 2.8 percent for C
category load centres.
6.2.1.2. Annual Population Growth Rate
The population growth rate is the main determining factor for future load
development. As autonomous load is essentially the demand of power of the people
in a locality, it is necessary to give the basis of growth rate to be adopted to estimate
population over the planning horizon, which in this case comprises 16 years.
Taking into consideration the Government policies, it is likely that in medium and
long-range (10-20 years). The growth rate will decline. But future rates of growth
can't be defined exactly and assumptions have to be made in order to make
sensitivity analysis three alternative scenarios have to be considered.
6.2.1.3. Persons Per Household (P)
A household survey was carried out in the area. The result show that 34 percent of
the household have per family with 7 to 8 persons. The remaining 56 percent of the
houses are shared with other relatives with 9 to 11 persons per house. This seems to
be different from the results of 1981 Census where 8 persons per household have
been estimated for Gilgit district. As expected, households with one family were
more common in the city. For sensitivity analysis population size per household has
been determined for three scenarios as follows:
Table 23: Income Distribution
38
Monthly Income (Rs) Category (%)
A B C
Below 1500 (Low) 28 40 56
2500 – 3000 (Medium) 50 45 37
Above 3000 (High) 22 15 74
Source: WAPDA& GTZ Report 1998.
6.2.1.4. Number of Household Per Commercial Centre
The number of shops and other commercial centres, have been counted during the
field survey in selected load centres and verified from the information collected.
Based on these results a ratio between households and commercial centres has been
established for different load centres. This ratio has been taken as constant over the
planning period 2001 to 2016.
6.2.1.5. Number of Households Per Public Unit
The offices of local administration - Sub Division and district administration,
NGOs, Northern Areas Organizations and public sector agencies, as well as the
union councils have been counted.