Dutch Disease, Resource Curse and Development*

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index metals & minerals, 1970=100 US$/barrel, crude oil (Brent) Empirical Evidence for DD and RC II Figure 6: Prices of mineral commodities and crude oil Prices of mineral commodities* (index, 1970=100) and crude oil (US$/barrel), 1982-2010 800 700 160 140 600 120 500 100 400 80 300 60 200 40 100 20 0 0 Q2 1982 Q4 1983 Q2 1985 Q4 1986 Q2 1988 Q4 1989 Q2 1991 Q4 1992 Q2 1994 Q4 1995 Q2 1997 Q4 1998 Q2 2000 Q4 2001 Q2 2003 Q4 2004 Q2 2006 Q4 2007 Q2 2009 index metals & minerals, lhs crude oil, brent, US$/barrel, rhs *Gold, silver, aluminum, zinc, copper, potash, lead, iron Source: Datastream, own calculations 20 UNCTAD Division on Technology and Logistics - Knowledge Sharing, Training and Capacity Development Branch
Empirical evidence III • Oil boom in the 1970s was followed by a long slump until end of 1990s, but often appreciation of REER was not offset by subsequent depreciation • In some countries spending windfalls led to high inflation which triggered depreciation of the exchange rate • During the oil boom 1998-2007 most countries experienced real appreciation - or avoided this through saving windfalls abroad (central bank reserves, sovereign wealth funds etc.) • In contrast to standard model, model countries built up big current account surpluses during booms mirror image of saving windfalls abroad • Low long-term growth in oil-rich countries, but wealth 21 accumulation abroad in several countries UNCTAD Division on Technology and Logistics - Knowledge Sharing, Training and Capacity Development Branch
Page 1 and 2: *based on Teaching Material on “D
Page 3 and 4: 1. Introduction • Dutch Disease (
Page 5 and 6: Focus on Institutions and “Good G
Page 7 and 8: Dutch Disease: The Standard Model I
Page 9 and 10: Dutch Disease: The Standard Model I
Page 11 and 12: Resource Curse I • Sachs/Warner (
Page 13 and 14: Resource Curse III Figure 3: Growth
Page 15 and 16: 4. DEBATES ON STANDARD THEORIES: LI
Page 17 and 18: Limitations, Shortcomings, Criticis
Page 19: Empirical Evidence for DD and RC I
Page 23 and 24: % of GDP Empirical Evidence for DD
Page 25 and 26: Nigeria, Iran, Algeria, Sambia, Sau
Page 27 and 28: Empirical evidence IX: External Sav
Page 29 and 30: Nigeria - Dutch disease, Resource C
Page 31 and 32: Venezuela - no growth despite oilab
Page 33 and 34: US$, p.c. index, 2005 = 100 Norway
Page 35 and 36: 6. COPING WITH DD AND RC : SEARCHIN
Page 37 and 38: Alternative Strategies for Resource
Page 39 and 40: 7. CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK UNCTAD Di
Page 41 and 42: Conclusion and Outlook II • There

Dutch Disease, Resource Curse and Development*

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