Dutch Disease, Resource Curse and Development*

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Botswana – a very special case Botswana – a success model: • Botswana (only 2 Mio. inhabitants) benefits from wealth in diamonds remarkable continuous GDP growth with fairly low inflation • Economy strongly dependent on diamonds exports • In contrast to oil – steady increase of world market diamonds prices since five decades permanent boom • Very little diversification of industry – manufacturing neglegible, but strong civil service and parastatal sector • Increasing inequality of income distribution • Real exchange rate strongly managed by central bank UNCTAD Division on Technology and Logistics - Knowledge Sharing, Training and Capacity Development Branch 32
US$, p.c. index, 2005 = 100 Norway – another special case 100.000 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 1970 1972 REER (downward = appreciation), rhs GDP p.c., constant US$, lhs Source: World Bank 2011, World Development Indicators, own calculations Norway: key indicators GDP p.c., PPP in constant US$, lhs 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 nominal exchange rate (downward = appreciation), rhs GDP p.c., current US$, lhs 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 current account balance, % of GDP, rhs 2004 2006 2008 33 UNCTAD Division on Technology and Logistics - Knowledge Sharing, Training and Capacity Development Branch 2010 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20
Page 1 and 2: *based on Teaching Material on “D
Page 3 and 4: 1. Introduction • Dutch Disease (
Page 5 and 6: Focus on Institutions and “Good G
Page 7 and 8: Dutch Disease: The Standard Model I
Page 9 and 10: Dutch Disease: The Standard Model I
Page 11 and 12: Resource Curse I • Sachs/Warner (
Page 13 and 14: Resource Curse III Figure 3: Growth
Page 15 and 16: 4. DEBATES ON STANDARD THEORIES: LI
Page 17 and 18: Limitations, Shortcomings, Criticis
Page 19 and 20: Empirical Evidence for DD and RC I
Page 21 and 22: Empirical evidence III • Oil boom
Page 23 and 24: % of GDP Empirical Evidence for DD
Page 25 and 26: Nigeria, Iran, Algeria, Sambia, Sau
Page 27 and 28: Empirical evidence IX: External Sav
Page 29 and 30: Nigeria - Dutch disease, Resource C
Page 31: Venezuela - no growth despite oilab
Page 35 and 36: 6. COPING WITH DD AND RC : SEARCHIN
Page 37 and 38: Alternative Strategies for Resource
Page 39 and 40: 7. CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK UNCTAD Di
Page 41 and 42: Conclusion and Outlook II • There

Dutch Disease, Resource Curse and Development*

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