Hard_Edges_Mapping_SMD_FINAL_VERSION_Web

40 Hard edges
Offender outcomes
Finally, we consider outcomes 23 in relation to
the offender population. The key objective of
policy in this sector is to reduce re-offending,
and a major purpose of the OASys instrument
is to collect data on risk factors for reoffending.
Figure 15 shows that there is a strong
relationship between risk of reoffending and
SMD, with the ‘High’ and ‘Very High’ risk
categories proportionately much larger in the
SMD2 and SMD3 cases than for those people in
the SMD1 (offending only) group.
» There is a strong
relationship between
risk of reoffending
and SMD «
tion Numbers by Probability of Reoffending by SMD Level
s Stock estimate based on OGP Score)
23
In practice outcome is proxied
here by predicted risk of
reoffending, based on models
used by National Offender
Management Service and based
on OASys data, calibrated on
past evidence of subsequent
reoffending.
Figure 15: Offender population numbers by probability of reoffending by SMD level
(OASys offender stock estimate based on OPG score)
140,000
120,000
100,000
NUMBER
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
SMD1 SMD2 SMD3
14,311
27,961
Very high
High
10,172
Medium
1,562 Low
Source: Authors’ analysis of OASys data on grossed offender population basis;
Note: OGP score is an index measuring probability of general reoffending