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risk management - monitor ii

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20 Monitor II Hazard maps<br />

Monitor II Hazard maps 21<br />

The theoretical return period is the inverse<br />

of the probability that a defined intensity of<br />

an event will be exceeded in any one year.<br />

For example, a 100-year flood has a 1%<br />

(1/100=0.01) chance of being exceeded in any<br />

one year and will on average occur once every<br />

100 years.<br />

As regards flood return period, it should<br />

be noticed that there are significant differences<br />

in the adopted boundaries. They reflect<br />

differences in national-regional legislations,<br />

spatial planning and design codes of protective<br />

structures.<br />

Hazard potential<br />

Hazard potential is derived by a heuristic<br />

matrix-based combination of return-period and<br />

intensity classes. This non-analytical approach<br />

results in non-unified hazard classifications<br />

among countries. For example in hazard assessment<br />

for floods Austria distinguishes only high<br />

and low hazard while Italy knows four hazard<br />

classes. It should also be noticed that there are<br />

discrepancies among countries regarding the<br />

colour assigned to a specific hazard class when<br />

used in hazard maps.<br />

FREQUENCY CLASS AUSTRIA SLOVENIA AUSTRIA ITALY ITALY<br />

Intensity<br />

Slovenia (PP4) Italy (PP5) Austria (PP1)<br />

Vulnerability<br />

Figure 17: Examples of frequency classes for floods based on the return period<br />

Figure 19: Examples of intensity classes for floods<br />

(PP1) (PP4) (Hora maps) (PP5) (PP7)<br />

High 1.5 m >1,5 m2/s >= 1,5 m >= 0,5 m >2 m<br />

Medium 0.5 - 1.5m 0.5 - 1,5 m2/s < 1,5 m < 0,25 m 0.5-2 m<br />

Low 11) &<br />

(=

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