Download floresville-master-plan-draft.pdf - Wilson County News

CITY OF FLORESVILLE MASTER PLAN
Population Projection Methodology
Due to the impact the oil boom has had on Floresville since the last census in 2010, it is difficult to get an
accurate estimate of the population there now and into the future. To project the population to 2022,
ten years from now, it was assumed that Floresville would continue growing at its normal rate if the
Eagle Ford Shale Boom had not come. On top of this growth the increase in population due to the
effects of oil is added. Population increase due to a business can be broken down into direct, indirect,
and induced increases.
Total Population = base population + (direct + indirect + induced) oil population
base population = Population census + births − deaths + migration
Base Population Growth
While the exact amount of births, deaths, and migration cannot be found directly, the overall change
can easily be estimated through population growth statistics. The base growth of Floresville has been
fairly constant exhibiting a linear growth even as Wilson County portrays a more exponential growth.
The linear growth formula was used to obtain a growth rate between 1970 and 2010 as this most
represented the current growth trend. It was found that Floresville grew an average of 68.5 people per
year. This rate appears to be continuing into the future and thus was used to project the base
population into the next decade.
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