DoD Responses to Transnational Threats - The Black Vault

The group behind these events had impressive membership, size, resources, and capabilities.
With 30,000 people involved – 10,000 of whom were in Russia – this group resembled a small
nation. It operated in Japan, Russia, Korea, Australia, Sri Lanka, and the United States with an
asset base estimated at $1.2 billion. The group had independent capabilities to produce sarin, VX,
anthrax, botulism, and radiological weapons. Aum Shinrikyo still exists today in Japan and
perhaps elsewhere. They are actively recruiting members, raising money, and organizing as
before. More important, they are likely to have learned lessons from their past failures to achieve
planned results.
The different types of motivation, consequence, and style of the transnational threat are
evident from the three cases described. The capability for a few individuals or groups to produce
major damage and loss of life exists today. Events that we have already witnessed could well have
resulted in far graver consequences had they been executed with better precision or more effective
agents. Figure 5 compares the potential impact of several such scenarios with the actual
consequences.
Actual Casualties
(Dead or Injured)
Potential Casualties
(Dead or Injured)
100,000
World Trade Center with Nuclear Device
Aum Shinrikyo
World Trade Center
Murrah Building, Oklahoma City
Khobar Towers
Pan Am 103
Bagwan Sri Rajneesh Sect in Oregon
10,000
1,000
100
World Trade Center with HE and Sarin
B’nai B’rith with Real Agent
Khobar Towers with Better Execution
10
B’nai B’rith
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Figure 5. Potential Consequences of the Threat
A closer look at the April 1997 B'nai B'rith incident in downtown Washington, DC, is
instructive. A package initially believed to contain anthrax was received at the B'nai B'rith
headquarters. Later, the naval laboratory in Bethesda, Maryland, identified the contents as
harmless bacteria and the incident was deemed a hoax. Nonetheless, several blocks of
Washington, DC, had been cordoned off, B'nai B'rith personnel quarantined, and the two
employees handling the package underwent decontamination procedures and were transported to
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