EAST LANCASHIRE HOSPITALS NHS TRUST TRUST BOARD ...

7. NON-ELECTIVE MEDICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST 2012 / 13
The non-elective forecast shown in the graphs and tables below from 29 October 2012 to 31
March 2013 is based on the following:
- an average of the last 4 years activity for this period reveals a percentage
increase of 24.3% (approximately 6% per year increase)
- Anecdotally the view is that the winter of 2010/11 was worse in terms of
number of patients admitted due to the pandemic flu outbreak. However,
analysis has revealed that the previous year 2009/10 was in fact worse.
- Therefore, based on this information, we have forecast an increase in activity
of 1 standard deviation from 2011/12
The base line acute bed numbers for the Medical Division are considered as being 441 (which
excludes MAU, all Pendle beds and associated length of stay and also excludes existing
escalation beds in the system as shown in bed configuration table below).
Based on retrospective data the forecast below indicates the weeks throughout the winter period
in which medical admissions are expected to exceed discharges within the Trust.
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