sowm_2015__int__africa_full_report_low_res

New Zealand; KIDS COUNT (USA). National
data sources were used only if principal data
sources (Eurostat and OECD.Stat) were missing
data for these countries or data were prior to 2010.
Deaths That Are Urban Analysis
The number of under-5 deaths that occur in
urban and rural areas was estimated for the 63
developing countries with disaggregated DHS
data for 2000-2014. Data from the latest available
survey were used for each country.
The following methodology was used for
each area of residence: crude birth rate (births
per 1,000 pop) x total population (1,000s) x
U5MR (deaths per 1,000 live births). This
calculation gave the absolute number of births
that occur in urban and rural areas. Urban
under-5 deaths were then divided by the total
number of under-5 deaths in country (given by
the urban + rural sum) to give the estimated
share of under-5 deaths that occur in urban settings.
The same reference year was used for all
three metrics. Given the rough nature of these
estimates, countries were grouped by region and
results were reported as regional averages for
Africa, Asia and the Americas. Weighted averages
were also calculated using the total number
of under-5 deaths in country in 2013.
This same analysis was done for all 73
countries with latest available data 1990-2014.
Regional averages were the same or higher with
this larger country set. Trend analyses were done
for all 15 countries with at least 5 DHS surveys
spanning roughly 15-20 years (range was 14 to
22 years). In one country (Philippines) the share
of under-5 deaths that occurred in urban areas
had declined across this time period. In another
(Colombia) it has remained unchanged. In
the 13 other countries, the share had increased.
These findings suggest child deaths are becoming
increasingly concentrated in urban areas (at
least in these countries).
Survival Gap Trend Analysis
This analysis included all 40 developing countries
with at least two data points five years apart
from DHS 1990-2011. The poorest-to-richest
quintile ratio (Q1/Q5) was calculated for the
earliest survey year and the most recent year
available. Ratios were then compared. For 19
of 40 countries, the latest quintile ratio was
larger than the earliest available quintile ratio.
This suggests equity gaps have grown in these
countries. In some cases, worsening performance
may be the result of better reporting of
data. Source: Data were provided by WHO, but
are publicly available at who.int/gho/data under
“Urban health.”
Positive Deviants Analysis
This analysis was done to identify candidate
cities for case studies. Trend data (defined as at
least two surveys five years apart) were available
for 50 capital and/or largest cities (or administrative
divisions they reside in) in developing
countries. For each city, the average annual
rate of reduction (AARR) in U5MR over the
last 10 years of available data (roughly surveys
2000-onward) was calculated according to the
following formula:
AARR=(U5MRL/U5MRE )^(1/n))-1
Where:
U5MRL = under-5 mortality rate from the
latest available survey
U5MRE = under-5 mortality rate from the
earlier (i.e., baseline) survey
n = the number of years between surveys
When calculating AARRs, baselines and endlines
were selected to get as close to a 10-year
period of analysis as possible. The time period
between surveys ranged from 5 to 15 years.
Where there were two survey options, the more
recent data were used. The average annual rate
of population growth over the same time period
was also calculated, using the same formula.
Candidate cities were selected based on:
a) pace of recent progress (i.e., AARR over the
last 10 years of available data); b) population
growth; c) national progress reducing urban
inequities (see urban survival gap trend analysis
below); c) city size class; d) country income
group; e) fragile state status. The final set of
cities was made in consultation with Save the
Children technical experts and country offices.
Data sources: DHS STATcompiler; MICS
reports; final and preliminary DHS reports;
UN DESA. World Urbanization Prospects: The
2014 Revision.
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