No 7 Secaucus Extension Final Report - NYCEDC

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No. 7 Secaucus ExtensionFeasibility Analysis Final Report5 RIDERSHIPThe travel demand forecast for the No. 7 Secaucus Extension was developed by NJ TRANSITthrough a series of iterative steps (in partnership with NYCT and PANYNJ) to guide the conceptlevelfacility and operation design to understand how this alternative would impact total trans-Hudson travel patterns. NJ TRANSIT’s travel demand forecasting results and memorandum areincluded in Appendix D.Tables 8 and 9 illustrate daily and AM peak ridership results with the No. 7 Secaucus Extensionand other available modes. As shown in Table 8, approximately 128,000 total daily trips in bothdirections (eastbound and westbound) are forecast to use the No. 7 Secaucus Extension in theyear 2035. As shown in Table 9, the forecast projects 19,700 eastbound trips (FRL Station to NewYork City) during the AM peak hour when travel demand on public transit is usually highest. Thetables include 2005 Base Year, 2035 Unconstrained No-Build, 2035 Constrained No-Build, and2035 Build ridership.The Unconstrained No-Build uses the future year transit system with future year estimates ofautomobile travel times, without any additional time penalties to represent system capacitylimitations. The Constrained No-Build scenario adds mode-specific capacity constraints on railservice into PSNY, express buses into the Lincoln Tunnel, uptown PATH trains, and automobilecrossings. There were no constraints on bus passengers headed through the Holland Tunneltowards lower Manhattan, ferry passengers traveling downtown, or downtown-bound PATHcustomers. There were also no constraints on any buses headed towards the GeorgeWashington Bridge bus station. In the Build scenario, the minor shift of riders to these buses wasdue to capacity constraints.By carefully assessing the ability for trans-Hudson travelers to select among travel options, it waspossible to establish a rail and bus feeder system, which would avoid undue duplication,achieve some efficiencies and offer more mode choices to balance system demand withsupply.Some current PABT commuters walk to and from their Manhattan destinations and many transferto NYCT subway lines. Creating a No. 7 subway transfer west-of-Hudson would work well forriders destined to the Hudson Yards area, East Midtown or Queens. Those who walk to and fromthe PABT to work or transfer at the PABT to west side subway lines running north-south would beless likely to take a bus to Secaucus to transfer to the No. 7 , which would add a transfer to theircurrent trip.Travelers in trans-Hudson market areas with current direct commuter rail service to PSNY (NEC,North Jersey Coast Line, and Midtown Direct Lines) would generally favor using commuter rail,but there would be diversions from commuter rail to the No. 7 Secaucus Extension from thosecommuter rail lines that do not have a one-seat ride to New York (Main-Bergen/Pascack ValleyLines).44
No. 7 Secaucus ExtensionFeasibility Analysis Final ReportTable 8:Year 2035 Total Daily Trans-Hudson Ridership2005 2035 2035 2035Entry to ManhattanBase YearUnconstrainedNo-BuildConstrainedNo-BuildBuildNY Penn Station Rail 127,800 165,800 161,700 143,700Lincoln Tunnel Buses 176,100 219,100 186,400 145,100Holland Tunnel Buses 9,800 13,100 13,300 13,000GW Bridge Bus Terminal 10,900 12,400 13,600 12,200No. 7 Secaucus Extension — — — 127,900WTC PATH 99,500 164,800 179,800 163,400Uptown PATH 117,500 172,200 171,500 156,800Lower Manhattan Ferries 6,500 9,100 9,400 9,150Midtown Ferries 19,300 30,200 40,000 28,000Subtotal Trips 567,400 786,700 775,700 799,250Where the Riders Come FromExisting Rail Trips diverting from Penn Station 18,000Trips diverting from Uptown PATH 14,700Trips diverting from Downtown PATH 16,400Trips diverting from Lincoln Tunnel Buses 41,300Trips diverting from Other Buses 1,700Trips diverting from Ferry 12,250Trips diverting from Auto 24,400Total Trips (Eastbound and Westbound) 128,750 6Other Key FactsTOTAL NO. 7 Secaucus Extension Daily Ridership 127,900Inbound Rail to No. 7 Secaucus Extension Transfers- Upper Level FRL Station 14,800- Main/Bergen/Port Jervis/Pascack Valley 46,700Total Rail to No. 7 Secaucus Extension Transfers 61,500Express Bus Transfers to Inbound No. 7 Secaucus Extension at FRL Station 46,700Local Bus Transfers to Inbound No. 7 Secaucus Extension at FRL Station 8,700Automobile Park and Drop-Off 5,200Reverse-Peak Flows (Attraction End at FRL Station) 5,800Source: NJ TRANSIT, 20116 128,750 represents the number of No. 7 daily weekday trips from the mode choice model, which includes 850 newintra-New Jersey trips, diverted from other modes. For example, bus passengers destined for FRL Station would beable to board a NJ TRANSIT train to Trenton or Princeton due to enhanced transit connectivity provided by theconcentration of new transit services at FRL Station.45
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