economic development strategy and action plan 2009 ... - City of Barrie

• Professional, Scientific + Business Services
o Other professional, scientific and technical services
o Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services
• Health Care and Social Assistance
o Out-patient care centres
o Nursing and residential care facilities
o Individual and family services
o Hospitals
An important consideration in determining the city’s target sector focus is the projected growth of these
sectors at both the provincial and local level as well as emerging trends that will shape the industry in the
future. A further consideration is the need to identify where economic development activities should
involve investment attraction, workforce attraction, or retention and expansion efforts to ensure their long
term sustainability and viability in the city.
3.3.1 Transportation + Warehousing // Wholesale Trade Sectors
The transportation and warehousing sector in Ontario accounted for 3.8% of the Province’s economy in
2008, with activities such as the shipping and storage of consumer goods, manufactured products, and
commodities. Despite the economic downturn, the sector has been largely unaffected. While the sector
has suffered some setbacks through 2008 and 2009, including a decrease in GDP (-2.8% from Q42008 to
Q12009) and a decrease in workforce (1.3% from June 2008 to June 2009), it has maintained a relatively
stable share of the province’s total output (3.7% of Ontario’s GDP in Q12009). Overall the industry is
seen as being comparatively stable, but as its fortunes are largely tied to the province’s manufacturing
and trade activity, recovery depends on the performances of other related sectors.
However, the sector is expected to rebound into 2010. The largest factors influencing this rebound should
be a stabilizing manufacturing sector, increased wholesale trade, and increased infrastructure spending
spillovers 14 .
Like the transportation and warehousing sector, the performance of the wholesale trade sector in Ontario
is impacted by the downturn in the manufacturing sector. In 2008, Wholesale Trade industries accounted
for 6.3% of the provinces GDP, which has decreased to 5.7% at the first quarter of 2009 largely based on
decreased production in the manufacturing sector, a slower residential construction market, and
lacklustre retail sales activity. Overall, wholesale trade sales decreased by 0.6% from 2007 to 2008, an
indicator that actually appears to be rising in the early part of 2009 15 . Much of this recovery is tied to
increases in the automotive products and food, beverages and tobacco subsectors 16 .
With economists projecting a slow recovery in the manufacturing sector, it is reasonable to assume that
growth in the wholesale trade sector could also be slow. However, the decreases in automotive assembly
and component manufacturing output are starting to level off, and retail sales are starting to return to prerecession
levels. As well, residential housing construction in Canada is expected to rebound over the
short term, with housing starts in Ontario expected to show growth again in 2010 17 . Also of note is the
potential for economic spill-over based on the infrastructure stimulus. While directly affecting activity in the
construction and manufacturing sectors, wholesale trade should receive a boost as well based on
increased purchasing and service requirements.
14 Scotiabank Group, Provincial Trends, 2009
15 Ontario Ministry of Finance, Economic Accounts, July 2009
16 Statistics Canada, The Daily - Wholesale Trade, August 20, 2009
17 TD Economics, Provincial Economic Forecast, July 16, 2009
City of Barrie Economic Development Strategy 41 | P age