Bashar's Syria: The Regime and its Strategic Worldview Shmuel Bar ...

Bashar’s Syria 373to the growing threat. Some analysts refer to “ultimatums” that the “old guard” issued tothe new president; (2) unilateral and unauthorized action on the part of the security forces,which forced a fait accompli on the president without first obtaining his acquiescence,(3) Bashar himself initiating steps against the reformists in order to ingratiate himself withthe “old guard,” hoping to win its support and consolidate his power and then implementfurther reforms, (4) and the rise of Ariel Sharon to power in Israel, which strengthened thehardliners in Damascus, which who Bashar then had to accommodate them.All these versions, though, do not do justice to Bashar’s own vested interest in thesurvival and continuity of the regime in its existing form. An alternative version which hasbecome more and more accepted by most Syria watchers and the opposition inside Syria isas follows: (1) Bashar believed he could open the door to incremental reforms and did notexpect the groundswell of demands for full civil liberties. Bashar had understood the needfor instruments of political expression as a means for “letting off steam,” but not as a form ofpopular participation in government. Neither Bashar nor the rest of the elite were prepared forthe rapid spread of demands for increasing freedom and the growing willingness to criticizethe regime, enabled by breaking of the “Complex of Fear.” (2) The crackdown reflectedBashar’s core beliefs that the direction that civil society took was incompatible with thevital interests of the regime and its survival. (3) The revitalization of the party at this stagealso is commensurate with Bashar’s own statements that the public desire for participation,which was manifested in the breakout of the civil-society movement, could be satisfiedby adjustments in the political structure of the Ba’th party and the PNF. (4) The attemptsto create a semblance of due process of law in arrests and indictment of oppositionistfigures does not represent an acceptance of the principle of separation of branches ofgovernment, but rather a shift from openly arbitrary authoritarianism to institutionalizedauthoritarianism. (5) The slogans of the Bashar al-Asad period in Syria, “change within theframework of continuity” and “reform and development,”—are indicative of these domesticpriorities.One of the arguments in favor of Bashar’s reformist image is the fact that he is considereda technophile; even before his appointment as president, Bashar was touted as a memberof the “internet generation” of leaders that had arisen in the Arab world, such as KingsMohammad VI of Morocco and Abdallah II of Jordan. The use of his medical title (Dr.Bashar al-Asad) in public statements and the allusions to expectation of change in thepersonality cult (Bashar’s pictures were captioned “the hope” and “the future”) also lendsitself to the notion that he is a new brand of leader. His Western education and affectionfor computer technology created the impression that he would promote modernization ofSyria on all levels—political, technological, and economic. This expectation that Bashar’stechnophile tendencies inexorably would lead him to political openness and liberalizationalso seems to have been a chimera. Bashar is definitely a technophile on the personal levelbut he by no means is a proponent of the free and anarchistic culture represented by theInternet revolution. Technology seems to be, for Bashar, a two-edged sword. He regards itas necessary for Syria to develop itself and win a place in the modern world. But, at thesame time, according to Bashar,a huge influx of information and ideas made possible by the communications andIT revolution . . . has made room for theories and projects, as well as lifestyleswhich have overwhelmed Arabs and threatened their existence and culturalidentity, and has increased the doubts and scepticism in the mind of young Arabs.The forces behind these events have created an illusory virtual reality . . . whichdrives us in a direction identified by others. . . . This leads in the end to the