Bashar's Syria: The Regime and its Strategic Worldview Shmuel Bar ...

392 S. Bar Disruption of the “hierarchy of corruption”; “chaotic corruption” as opposed to theold “organized corruption,” and severe economic problems; Inconsistency in dealing with the opposition, causing a loss of deterrence; and Ambiguity of authority, breeding “authority grabs.” In this context, it is noteworthythat the long reign of the Ba’th regime has effectively destroyed the traditionalstructure of local authority (wujahah, literally. “men with faces”) in Syrian societyand at the same time has prevented, in most parts of the country, the growth of analternative civil society.These factors are reflected in diverse groupings of the Syrian public which pose apotential threat to the regime. These include: Democratic Opposition: The “Civil Society,” intellectuals, former political prisonersand individuals educated abroad, with a genuine reformist agenda. Internal opposition: Junior Ba’th backbenchers calling for political reform as a meansto achieve mobility within the stagnant regime, on one hand, and the remnants of the“old guard,” which perceive Bashar as having forfeited the assets that his father lefthim. Islamic Opposition: Members of the old Islamic opposition, particularly the MuslimBrotherhood. Kurdish Opposition: Outlawed Kurdish parties, Kurdish unrest exacerbated by discrimination,and Iraq-inspired irredentism.The EconomyThe Syrian economy 92 suffers from a perennial crisis of budget shortfalls, inflation (10percent), unemployment, and trade imbalance. Its per capita income is about US$1,200,its population of 17.6 million grows at about 2.6 percent per annum, and the workforcegrows at about 4 percent per annum. The per annum growth of 2–3 percent does not reachthe 5 percent target that the World Bank has determined is necessary for Syria to maintainits present status. Unemployment is estimated officially at 12 percent but may be up to 25percent. The private sector is dwarfed by the public sector and the latter has actually grownproportionally since Bashar came to power. The preponderance of the government sectoris visible also in the fact that government expenditure accounts for at least 35 percent ofthe GDP and about 20 percent of the employed population are government workers. 93 Thebudget allocates almost half of the state revenue to military and security expenditures andthe external debt stands at about $21 billion, 96 percent of the GDP. 94The Syrian economy is largely dependent on revenues from oil production. Oil presentlycontributes 20 percent of GDP, two-thirds of exports, and half of government revenues (about15 percent of GDP), but is likely to be exhausted in the late 2020s. Syria may become anet oil importer within a few years. 95 New exploration operations are not promising at themoment. In the 1980s, it had closed the Iraqi oil pipes and had been compensated by Iranwith large oil shipments. In the 2000s it allowed Iraq to export through the Karkouk–Baniaspipelines, using cheap oil for local consumption and to boost its own exports. Today, itseems that there is no political configuration that Syria can take similar advantage of. 96The Syrian government has already announced that subsidies for fuel will be phased outby 2010. Cuts in subsidies, however, will have severe economic ramifications in terms ofrising prices and further domestic instability.